Recent short-range forecast guidance points to a peak temperature near 27–28°C in Istanbul on July 29 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward those exact outcomes. The Bosphorus and Black Sea exert a strong marine moderating influence that typically caps daytime maxima a few degrees below inland norms, while clear conditions and moderate humidity support efficient daytime heating without pushing values into the low 30s. Historical July climatology shows average highs of 28–30°C, yet the current pattern’s stability reduces the probability of significant deviations. Traders monitor the next Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF model runs for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or wind fields ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 29?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 29?
27°C 47%
28°C 36%
26°C 23%
29°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
15%
25°C
16%
26°C
23%
27°C
47%
28°C
24%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C
8%
32°C or higher
7%
27°C 47%
28°C 36%
26°C 23%
29°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
22°C or below
$22 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$27 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
15%
25°C
$0 Vol.
16%
26°C
$0 Vol.
23%
27°C
$10 Vol.
47%
28°C
$25 Vol.
24%
29°C
$0 Vol.
17%
30°C
$0 Vol.
17%
31°C
$6 Vol.
8%
32°C or higher
$32 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance points to a peak temperature near 27–28°C in Istanbul on July 29 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward those exact outcomes. The Bosphorus and Black Sea exert a strong marine moderating influence that typically caps daytime maxima a few degrees below inland norms, while clear conditions and moderate humidity support efficient daytime heating without pushing values into the low 30s. Historical July climatology shows average highs of 28–30°C, yet the current pattern’s stability reduces the probability of significant deviations. Traders monitor the next Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF model runs for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or wind fields ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 4:06 AM ET
Volume
$121End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 4:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance points to a peak temperature near 27–28°C in Istanbul on July 29 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward those exact outcomes. The Bosphorus and Black Sea exert a strong marine moderating influence that typically caps daytime maxima a few degrees below inland norms, while clear conditions and moderate humidity support efficient daytime heating without pushing values into the low 30s. Historical July climatology shows average highs of 28–30°C, yet the current pattern’s stability reduces the probability of significant deviations. Traders monitor the next Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF model runs for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or wind fields ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$121End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 4:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast guidance points to a peak temperature near 27–28°C in Istanbul on July 29 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward those exact outcomes. The Bosphorus and Black Sea exert a strong marine moderating influence that typically caps daytime maxima a few degrees below inland norms, while clear conditions and moderate humidity support efficient daytime heating without pushing values into the low 30s. Historical July climatology shows average highs of 28–30°C, yet the current pattern’s stability reduces the probability of significant deviations. Traders monitor the next Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF model runs for any shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or wind fields ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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