Recent northerly winds and partly cloudy conditions over Wellington are supporting mild daytime warming, with official forecasts from MetService, Met Office, and others converging on a maximum of 16–18°C for October 12. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 18°C and 19°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and typical spring variability around the 15–16°C October average high. Light winds early in the day and limited cloud cover allow modest solar heating before any afternoon sea breeze develops, while recent observations of 14–17°C highs provide a baseline. Minor model differences in timing of cloud increases introduce the small probability mass at 20°C or above.