The Reserve Bank of India’s latest monetary policy projections peg FY27 CPI inflation at 4.6 percent, providing the main catalyst for traders pricing an 80.5 percent implied probability that India’s annual inflation rate for 2026 will exceed 4.50 percent. April’s CPI print rose to 3.48 percent from 3.40 percent in March under the new 2024 base-year series, with food inflation climbing to 4.20 percent and energy risks from global oil prices adding upward pressure despite government subsidies capping retail fuel costs. Core inflation remains subdued near 3.4 percent, while the RBI’s quarterly path—rising to 5.2 percent in Q3 before easing—supports expectations that the full-year average will finish above the 4 percent target midpoint. Subsequent monthly CPI releases and the June policy meeting remain key watchpoints for any shift in this consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 83%
1.50% to 2.24% 9.8%
2.25% to 2.99% 8.2%
3.00% to 3.74% 7.1%
$60,596 Vol.
$60,596 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
3%
1.50% to 2.24%
10%
2.25% to 2.99%
8%
3.00% to 3.74%
7%
3.75% to 4.49%
10%
4.50%+
83%
4.50%+ 83%
1.50% to 2.24% 9.8%
2.25% to 2.99% 8.2%
3.00% to 3.74% 7.1%
$60,596 Vol.
$60,596 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$806 Vol.
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
$525 Vol.
3%
1.50% to 2.24%
$415 Vol.
10%
2.25% to 2.99%
$23,739 Vol.
8%
3.00% to 3.74%
$517 Vol.
7%
3.75% to 4.49%
$23,340 Vol.
10%
4.50%+
$11,254 Vol.
83%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfThe Reserve Bank of India’s latest monetary policy projections peg FY27 CPI inflation at 4.6 percent, providing the main catalyst for traders pricing an 80.5 percent implied probability that India’s annual inflation rate for 2026 will exceed 4.50 percent. April’s CPI print rose to 3.48 percent from 3.40 percent in March under the new 2024 base-year series, with food inflation climbing to 4.20 percent and energy risks from global oil prices adding upward pressure despite government subsidies capping retail fuel costs. Core inflation remains subdued near 3.4 percent, while the RBI’s quarterly path—rising to 5.2 percent in Q3 before easing—supports expectations that the full-year average will finish above the 4 percent target midpoint. Subsequent monthly CPI releases and the June policy meeting remain key watchpoints for any shift in this consensus.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$60,596End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfThe Reserve Bank of India’s latest monetary policy projections peg FY27 CPI inflation at 4.6 percent, providing the main catalyst for traders pricing an 80.5 percent implied probability that India’s annual inflation rate for 2026 will exceed 4.50 percent. April’s CPI print rose to 3.48 percent from 3.40 percent in March under the new 2024 base-year series, with food inflation climbing to 4.20 percent and energy risks from global oil prices adding upward pressure despite government subsidies capping retail fuel costs. Core inflation remains subdued near 3.4 percent, while the RBI’s quarterly path—rising to 5.2 percent in Q3 before easing—supports expectations that the full-year average will finish above the 4 percent target midpoint. Subsequent monthly CPI releases and the June policy meeting remain key watchpoints for any shift in this consensus.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$60,596End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Reserve Bank of India’s latest monetary policy projections peg FY27 CPI inflation at 4.6 percent, providing the main catalyst for traders pricing an 80.5 percent implied probability that India’s annual inflation rate for 2026 will exceed 4.50 percent. April’s CPI print rose to 3.48 percent from 3.40 percent in March under the new 2024 base-year series, with food inflation climbing to 4.20 percent and energy risks from global oil prices adding upward pressure despite government subsidies capping retail fuel costs. Core inflation remains subdued near 3.4 percent, while the RBI’s quarterly path—rising to 5.2 percent in Q3 before easing—supports expectations that the full-year average will finish above the 4 percent target midpoint. Subsequent monthly CPI releases and the June policy meeting remain key watchpoints for any shift in this consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions