Escalating military exchanges in the Israel-Iran conflict continue to shape trader assessments of near-term airspace closure risks. Large-scale U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 triggered sustained Iranian missile and drone retaliation, prompting repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace and regional flight disruptions. Renewed Iranian barrages around June 8, combined with ongoing Israeli operations in southern Lebanon, have led aviation authorities to issue updated NOTAMs and risk advisories extending through late June, keeping Ben Gurion Airport on restricted activity footing. Traders weigh these verified strike patterns and warning extensions against any diplomatic de-escalation signals or pauses in attacks that could keep civilian operations open. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks remain key variables that could shift probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$15,344,597 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
June 14
8%
June 15
13%
June 30
25%
$15,344,597 Vol.
June 14
$424,574 Vol.
8%
June 15
$5,103,572 Vol.
13%
June 30
$2,171,487 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalating military exchanges in the Israel-Iran conflict continue to shape trader assessments of near-term airspace closure risks. Large-scale U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 triggered sustained Iranian missile and drone retaliation, prompting repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace and regional flight disruptions. Renewed Iranian barrages around June 8, combined with ongoing Israeli operations in southern Lebanon, have led aviation authorities to issue updated NOTAMs and risk advisories extending through late June, keeping Ben Gurion Airport on restricted activity footing. Traders weigh these verified strike patterns and warning extensions against any diplomatic de-escalation signals or pauses in attacks that could keep civilian operations open. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks remain key variables that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$15,344,597Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalating military exchanges in the Israel-Iran conflict continue to shape trader assessments of near-term airspace closure risks. Large-scale U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 triggered sustained Iranian missile and drone retaliation, prompting repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace and regional flight disruptions. Renewed Iranian barrages around June 8, combined with ongoing Israeli operations in southern Lebanon, have led aviation authorities to issue updated NOTAMs and risk advisories extending through late June, keeping Ben Gurion Airport on restricted activity footing. Traders weigh these verified strike patterns and warning extensions against any diplomatic de-escalation signals or pauses in attacks that could keep civilian operations open. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks remain key variables that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,344,597Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating military exchanges in the Israel-Iran conflict continue to shape trader assessments of near-term airspace closure risks. Large-scale U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 triggered sustained Iranian missile and drone retaliation, prompting repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace and regional flight disruptions. Renewed Iranian barrages around June 8, combined with ongoing Israeli operations in southern Lebanon, have led aviation authorities to issue updated NOTAMs and risk advisories extending through late June, keeping Ben Gurion Airport on restricted activity footing. Traders weigh these verified strike patterns and warning extensions against any diplomatic de-escalation signals or pauses in attacks that could keep civilian operations open. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks remain key variables that could shift probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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