January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$307,359 Vol.
<1.00ºC 24.0%
1.05–1.09ºC 23%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.00–1.04ºC 18%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<1.00ºC
$16,491 Vol.
24%
<1.00ºC
$16,491 Vol.
24%
1.00–1.04ºC
$77,085 Vol.
18%
1.00–1.04ºC
$77,085 Vol.
18%
1.05–1.09ºC
$42,729 Vol.
23%
1.05–1.09ºC
$42,729 Vol.
23%
1.10–1.14ºC
$27,170 Vol.
19%
1.10–1.14ºC
$27,170 Vol.
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
$41,429 Vol.
10%
1.15–1.19ºC
$41,429 Vol.
10%
>1.19ºC
$102,454 Vol.
10%
>1.19ºC
$102,454 Vol.
10%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Created At: Dec 29, 2025, 9:56 PM UTC
Volume
$307,359End Date
Feb 10, 2026Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 9:56 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$307,359 Vol.
January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.00ºC 24.0%
1.05–1.09ºC 23%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.00–1.04ºC 18%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<1.00ºC
$16,491 Vol.
24%
1.00–1.04ºC
$77,085 Vol.
18%
1.05–1.09ºC
$42,729 Vol.
23%
1.10–1.14ºC
$27,170 Vol.
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
$41,429 Vol.
10%
>1.19ºC
$102,454 Vol.
10%
About
Volume
$307,359End Date
Feb 10, 2026Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 9:56 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
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