Persistent southerly flow and a stable warm air mass across central Texas are sustaining elevated overnight lows near 74–76°F for Austin on September 28, according to National Weather Service and ensemble guidance. This pattern, with minimal diurnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, contrasts with the long-term average minimum of about 64°F and has limited the chance of a sharp frontal intrusion that could drop readings into the 60s. Model consensus shows little spread in the minimum, yet market-implied odds remain nearly even between sub-66°F and 84°F-plus outcomes, reflecting trader focus on tail risks from any late timing shift in steering patterns or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies. Updated NHC and local forecast discussions through the weekend will refine the final minimum before resolution.