Forecast models from agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show persistent rain and northeasterly flow over Busan on September 26, limiting daytime solar heating and capping highs near 22–24°C amid high humidity and cloud cover. This setup matches the late-September climatological average of roughly 24°C while suppressing potential for warmer readings under clearer skies. Recent model runs have converged on moderate precipitation totals and light-to-moderate winds, reducing uncertainty in peak temperature and reinforcing trader preference for the 23°C bin as the mode. Upcoming hourly observations and any last-minute adjustments to steering patterns will be the key near-term drivers of shifts in implied probabilities.