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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

Jul 3

Jul 4

Jul 5

Jul 3

Jul 4

Jul 5

27°C 49%

26°C 22%

28°C 14%

25°C 9%

Polymarket
NEW

27°C 49%

26°C 22%

28°C 14%

25°C 9%

Polymarket
NEW

22°C or below

$49 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$439 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$453 Vol.

4%

25°C

$41 Vol.

9%

26°C

$1,354 Vol.

22%

27°C

$2,327 Vol.

49%

28°C

$69 Vol.

14%

29°C

$72 Vol.

3%

30°C

$44 Vol.

1%

31°C

$242 Vol.

<1%

32°C or higher

$49 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 5 indicate overnight lows near 27°C under typical early-July humidity and light winds, consistent with seasonal norms of 26–28°C minima and the agency’s normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook. Trader dispersion across 25–27°C outcomes reflects uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling, where increased cloud cover or scattered showers could suppress temperatures by 1–2°C below guidance, while clearer skies would favor the 27–28°C cluster. Model consensus shows limited spread, but monsoon trough influences and urban heat-island effects introduce modest variability ahead of the next forecast update.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,138
End Date
Jul 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 5 indicate overnight lows near 27°C under typical early-July humidity and light winds, consistent with seasonal norms of 26–28°C minima and the agency’s normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook. Trader dispersion across 25–27°C outcomes reflects uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling, where increased cloud cover or scattered showers could suppress temperatures by 1–2°C below guidance, while clearer skies would favor the 27–28°C cluster. Model consensus shows limited spread, but monsoon trough influences and urban heat-island effects introduce modest variability ahead of the next forecast update.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,138
End Date
Jul 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "27°C" at 49%, followed by "26°C" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?" is "27°C" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "26°C" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.