Recent heavy monsoon rainfall over Lucknow, including 135.8 mm on September 26 that produced a 20.6°C minimum—the lowest September reading in 12 years—has temporarily suppressed temperatures through persistent cloud cover and evaporative cooling. As the season transitions toward withdrawal, forecast models from the India Meteorological Department indicate clearing skies and westerly flow by September 29, supporting minimums near 23–24°C. This creates tight market balance between warmer outcomes above 28°C, driven by rapid post-rain rebound, and cooler scenarios at or below 18°C if residual moisture lingers. Historical late-September lows average 23–26°C, with variability tied to exact timing of cloud dissipation and boundary-layer moisture.