**Typical midsummer nocturnal conditions in subtropical Miami drive the clustered probabilities around 78–83°F for the July 8 minimum temperature.** Official forecasts and climatological normals place overnight lows near 81–83°F, with high humidity (often 70–80%+) and light southeast winds limiting radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm activity, common in the afternoon or evening, can briefly enhance mixing or deliver localized cooling, contributing to the tight spread among the leading bins (80–81°F, 82–83°F, and 78–79°F each near 22%). Recent model consensus shows no major cold advection or atypical steering patterns, keeping outcomes above 74°F heavily favored while the low-probability tails (below 74°F or above 86°F) reflect the rarity of significant deviations in July. Key variables traders are monitoring include updated National Weather Service guidance on cloud cover and wind overnight, which directly influence how far temperatures fall before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on July 8?
Lowest temperature in Miami on July 8?
80-81°F 47%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 20%
76-77°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
47%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 47%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 20%
76-77°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
69°F or below
$82 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$457 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$292 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$498 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$100 Vol.
7%
78-79°F
$78 Vol.
20%
80-81°F
$1,991 Vol.
47%
82-83°F
$181 Vol.
29%
84-85°F
$66 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$231 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$1,997 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Typical midsummer nocturnal conditions in subtropical Miami drive the clustered probabilities around 78–83°F for the July 8 minimum temperature.** Official forecasts and climatological normals place overnight lows near 81–83°F, with high humidity (often 70–80%+) and light southeast winds limiting radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm activity, common in the afternoon or evening, can briefly enhance mixing or deliver localized cooling, contributing to the tight spread among the leading bins (80–81°F, 82–83°F, and 78–79°F each near 22%).
Recent model consensus shows no major cold advection or atypical steering patterns, keeping outcomes above 74°F heavily favored while the low-probability tails (below 74°F or above 86°F) reflect the rarity of significant deviations in July. Key variables traders are monitoring include updated National Weather Service guidance on cloud cover and wind overnight, which directly influence how far temperatures fall before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$5,973End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Typical midsummer nocturnal conditions in subtropical Miami drive the clustered probabilities around 78–83°F for the July 8 minimum temperature.** Official forecasts and climatological normals place overnight lows near 81–83°F, with high humidity (often 70–80%+) and light southeast winds limiting radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm activity, common in the afternoon or evening, can briefly enhance mixing or deliver localized cooling, contributing to the tight spread among the leading bins (80–81°F, 82–83°F, and 78–79°F each near 22%).
Recent model consensus shows no major cold advection or atypical steering patterns, keeping outcomes above 74°F heavily favored while the low-probability tails (below 74°F or above 86°F) reflect the rarity of significant deviations in July. Key variables traders are monitoring include updated National Weather Service guidance on cloud cover and wind overnight, which directly influence how far temperatures fall before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,973End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Typical midsummer nocturnal conditions in subtropical Miami drive the clustered probabilities around 78–83°F for the July 8 minimum temperature.** Official forecasts and climatological normals place overnight lows near 81–83°F, with high humidity (often 70–80%+) and light southeast winds limiting radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm activity, common in the afternoon or evening, can briefly enhance mixing or deliver localized cooling, contributing to the tight spread among the leading bins (80–81°F, 82–83°F, and 78–79°F each near 22%). Recent model consensus shows no major cold advection or atypical steering patterns, keeping outcomes above 74°F heavily favored while the low-probability tails (below 74°F or above 86°F) reflect the rarity of significant deviations in July. Key variables traders are monitoring include updated National Weather Service guidance on cloud cover and wind overnight, which directly influence how far temperatures fall before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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