Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicates a frontal passage with persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and scattered showers moderating overnight radiative cooling in Wuhan. This setup favors a minimum temperature near 21–22°C on September 29, as high humidity and precipitation suppress the typical nocturnal drop while the cooler air mass arrives gradually. The closely matched market-implied odds between sub-17°C and 27°C+ outcomes reflect trader focus on forecast sensitivity to cloud timing and wind shifts, which can alter the low by several degrees. Historical September baselines around 20–24°C provide context, with updated model runs and official observations expected to narrow resolution uncertainty before market close.