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Politics·Michigan

MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Michigan

MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Shri Thanedar 51%

Donavan McKinney 37%

Shelby Campbell 4.9%

Anthony Carbonaro 1.9%

Polymarket

$23,056 Vol.

Shri Thanedar 51%

Donavan McKinney 37%

Shelby Campbell 4.9%

Anthony Carbonaro 1.9%

Polymarket

$23,056 Vol.

Shri Thanedar

$1,299 Vol.

51%

Donavan McKinney

$20,475 Vol.

37%

Shelby Campbell

$442 Vol.

5%

Anthony Carbonaro

$413 Vol.

2%

Nazmul Hassan

$427 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Shri Thanedar maintains a slim edge in the August 4 Democratic primary for Michigan’s 13th Congressional District through established name recognition, prior primary victories including a 2024 win with 54 percent, and stronger fundraising networks in the Detroit-area seat. State Representative Donavan McKinney has closed ground via endorsements from progressive leaders and labor organizations, alongside criticism of Thanedar’s record on foreign policy and constituent services. The recent filing by Detroit City Councilmember Mary Waters adds another challenger in a field that also includes Shelby Campbell, Anthony Carbonaro, and Nazmul Hassan, potentially splitting opposition support. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics ahead of the primary, where core Democratic turnout and late campaign developments could shift outcomes in the closely contested race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$23,056
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Shri Thanedar maintains a slim edge in the August 4 Democratic primary for Michigan’s 13th Congressional District through established name recognition, prior primary victories including a 2024 win with 54 percent, and stronger fundraising networks in the Detroit-area seat. State Representative Donavan McKinney has closed ground via endorsements from progressive leaders and labor organizations, alongside criticism of Thanedar’s record on foreign policy and constituent services. The recent filing by Detroit City Councilmember Mary Waters adds another challenger in a field that also includes Shelby Campbell, Anthony Carbonaro, and Nazmul Hassan, potentially splitting opposition support. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics ahead of the primary, where core Democratic turnout and late campaign developments could shift outcomes in the closely contested race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$23,056
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Shri Thanedar" at 51%, followed by "Donavan McKinney" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $23.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Shri Thanedar" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donavan McKinney" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.