Michigan voters will decide on November 3, 2026, whether to convene a constitutional convention under the automatic 16-year referendum process in Article XII of the state constitution. Trader consensus heavily favors rejection, consistent with prior outcomes in 1978, 1994, and 2010 when "no" votes ranged from 67 to 77 percent. Factors reinforcing this outlook include organized opposition from education and labor groups, the broad scope of a full rewrite potentially affecting taxes, redistricting, term limits, and local government structures, and the absence of widespread public mobilization for change. Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include late-cycle developments such as major policy crises prompting reform demands or unusually effective advocacy campaigns altering turnout or framing among key voting blocs.