Voters in Michigan will decide on November 3, 2026, whether to convene a constitutional convention under the automatic 16-year referral process in the state constitution. Historical precedent strongly shapes current trader consensus around a “no” outcome, as voters rejected similar questions by margins of 77 percent in 1978, 72 percent in 1994, and 67 percent in 2010. An organized opposition effort, Protect MI Constitution from Special Interests, has already raised substantial funds from labor unions, business groups, and other organizations, highlighting risks of cost, special-interest influence, and broad uncertainty over any revisions. Limited organized support for a “yes” vote and the absence of recent polling showing majority backing for a convention reinforce expectations that the status quo under the 1963 constitution will prevail. Late shifts could still occur if a well-funded pro-convention campaign emerges or if specific policy frustrations drive higher turnout among reform advocates in the final months before the election.