Michigan voters will decide on November 3, 2026, whether to convene a constitutional convention under the automatic 16-year referral process in the 1963 Constitution. Trader consensus heavily favors rejection at 95.5% probability for “No,” consistent with prior outcomes where voters opposed conventions by wide margins in 1978, 1994, and 2010. Primary drivers include limited public demand for wholesale revision, concerns over delegate selection costs and timeline, institutional inertia favoring incremental amendments, and risks that a convention could produce unpredictable changes to term limits, redistricting, or fiscal provisions. No major recent developments have shifted this positioning. Realistic scenarios that could still alter odds include a high-profile bipartisan reform push tied to specific grievances or unusually low turnout favoring organized yes campaigns ahead of the November vote.