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"Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office

icon for "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office

"Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office

May 18

May 18

May 18

May 18

May 18

May 18

May 18

May 18

>25m 59%

22-25m 40%

19-22m <1%

<19m <1%

Polymarket

$41,786 Vol.

>25m 59%

22-25m 40%

19-22m <1%

<19m <1%

Polymarket

$41,786 Vol.

<19m

$4,201 Vol.

<1%

19-22m

$6,229 Vol.

1%

22-25m

$5,580 Vol.

40%

>25m

$25,776 Vol.

59%

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong audience demand and resilient weekend-to-weekend holds have driven trader consensus toward a >$25 million fourth weekend for the Michael Jackson biopic. Despite mixed critic reviews, the Lionsgate release benefited from robust opening-weekend momentum of $97 million domestically, premium-format turnout, and broad demographic appeal that echoed past music biopics like Bohemian Rhapsody. Recent data showing a $6.5 million-plus fourth Friday with only a 27% drop signals sustained engagement, pushing implied probability for the top outcome above 58%. Upcoming chart updates and any late marketing pushes could further influence the final tally ahead of Memorial Day competition.

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$41,786
End Date
May 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong audience demand and resilient weekend-to-weekend holds have driven trader consensus toward a >$25 million fourth weekend for the Michael Jackson biopic. Despite mixed critic reviews, the Lionsgate release benefited from robust opening-weekend momentum of $97 million domestically, premium-format turnout, and broad demographic appeal that echoed past music biopics like Bohemian Rhapsody. Recent data showing a $6.5 million-plus fourth Friday with only a 27% drop signals sustained engagement, pushing implied probability for the top outcome above 58%. Upcoming chart updates and any late marketing pushes could further influence the final tally ahead of Memorial Day competition.

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$41,786
End Date
May 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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Frequently Asked Questions

""Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">25m" at 59%, followed by "22-25m" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, ""Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office" has generated $41.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on ""Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for ""Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office" is ">25m" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "22-25m" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for ""Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.