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Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

icon for MLB: Home Runs Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Aaron Judge 29%

Kyle Schwarber 29%

Munetaka Murakami 11%

Matt Olson 7.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Judge 29%

Kyle Schwarber 29%

Munetaka Murakami 11%

Matt Olson 7.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Judge

$472 Vol.

29%

Kyle Schwarber

$2,489 Vol.

29%

Munetaka Murakami

$2,654 Vol.

11%

Matt Olson

$771 Vol.

8%

Yordan Alvarez

$130 Vol.

6%

James Wood

$207 Vol.

5%

Brandon Lowe

$115 Vol.

2%

Shohei Ohtani

$328 Vol.

2%

Elly De La Cruz

$271 Vol.

2%

Jordan Walker

$115 Vol.

2%

Cal Raleigh

$115 Vol.

1%

Shea Langeliers

$311 Vol.

1%

Ben Rice

$165 Vol.

1%

Nick Kurtz

$142 Vol.

1%

CJ Abrams

$115 Vol.

1%

Giancarlo Stanton

$115 Vol.

1%

Manny Machado

$165 Vol.

1%

Mike Trout

$115 Vol.

1%

Junior Caminero

$115 Vol.

1%

Sal Stewart

$115 Vol.

1%

Eugenio Suarez

$115 Vol.

1%

Juan Soto

$115 Vol.

1%

Rafael Devers

$115 Vol.

1%

Pete Alonso

$115 Vol.

1%

George Springer

$137 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber's recent surge to 20 home runs, including a two-homer game that made him the first player to reach that mark in 2026, has tightened the early-season race alongside Aaron Judge's consistent power output at 16 homers for the Yankees. Both players' strong slugging percentages and on-base skills reflect favorable matchups and lineup protection, sustaining trader consensus around their leading implied probabilities. Murakami's 15-plus homers for the White Sox and contributions from Olson and Alvarez keep the field competitive, as the long regular-season schedule and variable rest factors allow multiple contenders to close gaps through hot streaks or favorable park effects. This bunching at the top underscores the unpredictable nature of long-term home run totals amid ongoing roster health and pitching adjustments.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,618
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber's recent surge to 20 home runs, including a two-homer game that made him the first player to reach that mark in 2026, has tightened the early-season race alongside Aaron Judge's consistent power output at 16 homers for the Yankees. Both players' strong slugging percentages and on-base skills reflect favorable matchups and lineup protection, sustaining trader consensus around their leading implied probabilities. Murakami's 15-plus homers for the White Sox and contributions from Olson and Alvarez keep the field competitive, as the long regular-season schedule and variable rest factors allow multiple contenders to close gaps through hot streaks or favorable park effects. This bunching at the top underscores the unpredictable nature of long-term home run totals amid ongoing roster health and pitching adjustments.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,618
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Home Runs Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aaron Judge" at 28%, followed by "Kyle Schwarber" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MLB: Home Runs Leader" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MLB: Home Runs Leader," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" is "Aaron Judge" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.