Jack Lowden leads the market at 40.2% implied probability after insider comments from Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman in September 2026 suggested producers had selected an actor and crossed fingers for the Scottish performer, building on earlier podcast buzz from Richard Osman. His experience playing a spy in the acclaimed Apple TV series, combined with his heritage echoing original Bond Sean Connery, has fueled trader momentum amid a shortlist that includes Callum Turner. The 25.1% chance of no selection reflects the absence of an official announcement despite expectations by year-end, while lower odds for actors like Turner and Paul Mescal stem from comparatively quieter recent developments in the Amazon MGM-led casting process.