US-Iran tensions continue to shape the closely balanced odds, with Donald Trump having used the phrase "Praise be to Allah" in multiple Truth Social posts since April 2026 to taunt Tehran amid naval blockades, strikes, and demands over the Strait of Hormuz. The most recent instances occurred in late September during renewed warnings about Iranian infrastructure and civilian targets, reflecting a pattern tied directly to active policy pressure rather than routine statements. Traders weigh the roughly five-week window to October 31 against the sporadic nature of these remarks, which have not appeared daily or in non-Iran contexts. Further escalation in the conflict or additional public statements could raise the chance of another instance, while any de-escalation, shift in focus to other priorities, or absence of similar rhetoric would favor the current slight edge for no repeat.