Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026, combined with indirect talks through Qatari mediators at the September UN General Assembly, have created a narrow path for a Trump-Pezeshkian meeting by year-end. Trump signaled openness to direct engagement in New York and described side discussions involving envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as constructive, yet he rejected Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal and insisted on concrete nuclear concessions before any sanctions relief. Pezeshkian attended the UNGA with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but no leaders' meeting materialized amid mutual distrust and Supreme Leader influence over final decisions. The closely balanced odds reflect trader views that further diplomatic momentum or a breakthrough framework could enable contact, while persistent gaps on core issues and risks of renewed escalation favor no high-level encounter before December 31.