The AfD's 43.8% win in the September 6 Landtag election, securing 39 of 83 seats, positions its lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund as the frontrunner for Minister-President, though the party fell three seats short of an absolute majority. Other parties largely rejected formal cooperation with the AfD, citing its classification by state authorities as a confirmed extremist organization, which has stalled coalition talks and kept alternative candidates such as Armin Willingmann and Sven Schulze at low implied probabilities. The new Landtag convenes October 6, with possible paths including BSW tolerance of an AfD-led minority government, cross-party arrangements excluding the AfD, or fresh elections if no stable majority emerges for any nominee.