Trader consensus heavily favors under 150 mm of total August precipitation in Seoul, reflecting observed rainfall patterns well below the long-term climatological average of roughly 350 mm. Official monitoring from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows predominantly light accumulations, with Seoul receiving only 20–60 mm from late-month stationary front activity that delivered far heavier totals farther south. This aligns with the broader 2026 summer monsoon distribution, where moisture corridors and low-pressure remnants favored Chungcheong and Honam regions over the capital area. The market-implied probability near 95% for the lowest bracket underscores consistent model runs and station data through month-end. Only substantial upward revisions in finalized KMA figures or overlooked localized convective events could realistically shift resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Seoul in August?
Precipitation in Seoul in August?
<150mm 100.0%
300-350mm 1.2%
150-200mm <1%
250-300mm <1%
$6,324 Vol.
$6,324 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<150mm
Yes
150-200mm
No
200-250mm
No
250-300mm
No
300-350mm
No
350-400mm
No
400-500mm
No
500mm+
No
<150mm 100.0%
300-350mm 1.2%
150-200mm <1%
250-300mm <1%
$6,324 Vol.
$6,324 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<150mm
$3,086 Vol.
Yes
150-200mm
$2,212 Vol.
No
200-250mm
$85 Vol.
No
250-300mm
$142 Vol.
No
300-350mm
$159 Vol.
No
350-400mm
$196 Vol.
No
400-500mm
$113 Vol.
No
500mm+
$332 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors under 150 mm of total August precipitation in Seoul, reflecting observed rainfall patterns well below the long-term climatological average of roughly 350 mm. Official monitoring from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows predominantly light accumulations, with Seoul receiving only 20–60 mm from late-month stationary front activity that delivered far heavier totals farther south. This aligns with the broader 2026 summer monsoon distribution, where moisture corridors and low-pressure remnants favored Chungcheong and Honam regions over the capital area. The market-implied probability near 95% for the lowest bracket underscores consistent model runs and station data through month-end. Only substantial upward revisions in finalized KMA figures or overlooked localized convective events could realistically shift resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ET
Volume
$6,324End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors under 150 mm of total August precipitation in Seoul, reflecting observed rainfall patterns well below the long-term climatological average of roughly 350 mm. Official monitoring from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows predominantly light accumulations, with Seoul receiving only 20–60 mm from late-month stationary front activity that delivered far heavier totals farther south. This aligns with the broader 2026 summer monsoon distribution, where moisture corridors and low-pressure remnants favored Chungcheong and Honam regions over the capital area. The market-implied probability near 95% for the lowest bracket underscores consistent model runs and station data through month-end. Only substantial upward revisions in finalized KMA figures or overlooked localized convective events could realistically shift resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,324End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus heavily favors under 150 mm of total August precipitation in Seoul, reflecting observed rainfall patterns well below the long-term climatological average of roughly 350 mm. Official monitoring from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows predominantly light accumulations, with Seoul receiving only 20–60 mm from late-month stationary front activity that delivered far heavier totals farther south. This aligns with the broader 2026 summer monsoon distribution, where moisture corridors and low-pressure remnants favored Chungcheong and Honam regions over the capital area. The market-implied probability near 95% for the lowest bracket underscores consistent model runs and station data through month-end. Only substantial upward revisions in finalized KMA figures or overlooked localized convective events could realistically shift resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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