This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Byron Donalds maintains dominant trader consensus for the Republican nomination in Florida's August 18 gubernatorial primary, reflecting his commanding poll leads of 38 to 54 percent in recent surveys from Emerson College, Stetson University, and others. President Trump's complete endorsement, combined with Donalds' record $22 million first-quarter fundraising haul and broad support among likely Republican voters, has solidified his frontrunner status in the open race after Governor DeSantis' term limit. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback trail far behind in both polling and market pricing, while other entrants like Casey DeSantis register negligible support. Ongoing campaign events and candidate exchanges have not narrowed the gap, though late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could still influence outcomes before the primary.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Byron Donalds maintains dominant trader consensus for the Republican nomination in Florida's August 18 gubernatorial primary, reflecting his commanding poll leads of 38 to 54 percent in recent surveys from Emerson College, Stetson University, and others. President Trump's complete endorsement, combined with Donalds' record $22 million first-quarter fundraising haul and broad support among likely Republican voters, has solidified his frontrunner status in the open race after Governor DeSantis' term limit. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback trail far behind in both polling and market pricing, while other entrants like Casey DeSantis register negligible support. Ongoing campaign events and candidate exchanges have not narrowed the gap, though late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could still influence outcomes before the primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 29 2026
Jay Collins’ market price slides to 5% after missing debate invitation
Collins was not invited to the televised GOP debate, signaling limited party support and pushing his price down to single digits.
Apr 18 2026
James Fishback’s poll numbers dip below 10% after fundraising reports
James Fishback dips to 9%3%
Fishback disclosed a modest $500,000 fundraising total, causing his market price to fall from 12% to 9% as donors shifted to Donalds.
Byron Donalds reached a peak market price of 93%, reflecting strong confidence in his likelihood to win the Republican primary for Florida governor as other candidates' support waned.
Apr 2 2026
Byron Donalds peaks at 93% after winning key endorsement from Florida Senate President
Byron Donalds jumps to 93%5%
The Florida Senate President publicly endorsed Donalds, creating a brief market peak to 93% before a modest pullback, while all other candidates fell to near‑zero.
Apr 1 2026
Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Governor DeSantis called a special legislative session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts, intensifying GOP infighting and political maneuvering in Florida. While this affected the broader political landscape, it had limited direct impact on the gubernatorial primary market.
Mar 14 2026
Byron Donalds hits 87% price after DeSantis hints at endorsement
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%
Governor Ron DeSantis said he would consider endorsing a candidate but did not name anyone; market inferred likely support for Donalds, sending his price to 87% and further marginalizing others.
Feb 25 2026
Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid continues to solidify
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Byron Donalds' campaign maintained its momentum as the primary frontrunner, with his market price rising steadily throughout the period.
Feb 25 2026
Byron Donalds maintains strong lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary market
Byron Donalds rises to 81%2%
Byron Donalds' market price remained high following his early announcement and Trump's endorsement, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.
Feb 19 2026
National Governors Association meeting disrupted by Trump excluding Democrats
The annual governors' meeting in Washington was upended after President Trump excluded Democratic governors from White House events, highlighting partisan tensions that may influence Republican primaries including Florida's.
Feb 10 2026
Byron Donalds reaches 81% market price after fundraising surge
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Donald’s campaign reported a $15 million fundraising haul, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his market price to a new high.
Jan 12 2026
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins joins 2026 governor Republican primary
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins officially announced his candidacy for governor, entering a primary field that already included Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.
During a televised GOP forum, Donalds outperformed rivals in a Q&A session, leading to a price jump from 81% to 82% as market participants interpreted his strong showing as a sign of inevitable nomination.
Dec 22 2025
Trump publicly praises Byron Donalds as preferred Florida governor candidate
Byron Donalds jumps to 81%11%
President Trump reiterated his support for Donalds in a televised interview, prompting a further price rise for Donalds to the low 80s and a corresponding decline for other candidates.
Dec 20 2025
Governor Ron DeSantis declines to endorse any primary candidate
DeSantis' neutrality removed a potential boost for other contenders, reinforcing Donalds' lead and contributing to the continued decline of the remaining candidates toward zero.
Dec 16 2025
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Collins' entry added a high‑profile state official to the field, briefly lifting his price from single digits to low‑teens before his support waned as Donalds' endorsement dominated the narrative.
Dec 12 2025
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Republican primary field
Byron Donalds jumps to 70%10%
A statewide poll released in mid‑December gave Donalds a double‑digit lead over his rivals, reinforcing his upward price trajectory to the low 70s.
Dec 9 2025
Azoria CEO James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 36%7%
James Fishback entered the race, positioning himself as a business outsider; the announcement shifted attention away from other fringe candidates, contributing to a modest dip in his own price and a slight rise for Donalds.
Dec 4 2025
James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 33%10%
Entrepreneur James Fishback entered the race, drawing limited media attention; his market price fell from 43% to the low 30s as donors and voters focused on higher‑profile candidates.
Dec 4 2025
Jay Collins' gubernatorial bid gains attention as lieutenant governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Following his announcement, Jay Collins' candidacy gained traction but faced challenges competing against Trump-backed Donalds, reflected in fluctuating market prices in early December 2025.
Dec 2 2025
Donald Trump endorses Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds jumps to 62%14%
Former President Trump publicly backed Byron Donalds, giving the candidate a major boost in national visibility and signaling party establishment support, which drove Donalds' price from the low‑40s to the high‑60s percent range.
Dec 2 2025
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 Florida governor race
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Jay Collins announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a DeSantis ally but without a clear endorsement, which coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 42% to the low single digits over the following weeks.
Dec 1 2025
Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the primary race against Trump-backed Byron Donalds, which initially caused a shift in market expectations.
Nov 25 2025
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed rival
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a key ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced a significant challenger and caused market shifts among candidates.
Byron Donalds' campaign for Florida governor, backed by Donald Trump, began the analysis window with strong market support, reflecting his status as the frontrunner.
Nov 25 2025
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds surges to 63%15%
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a DeSantis ally, officially entered the Republican primary, setting up a contest against Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds. This announcement clarified the primary field and influenced early market positioning, with Donalds gaining from Trump's backing and Collins entering as a credible contender.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Byron Donalds maintains dominant trader consensus for the Republican nomination in Florida's August 18 gubernatorial primary, reflecting his commanding poll leads of 38 to 54 percent in recent surveys from Emerson College, Stetson University, and others. President Trump's complete endorsement, combined with Donalds' record $22 million first-quarter fundraising haul and broad support among likely Republican voters, has solidified his frontrunner status in the open race after Governor DeSantis' term limit. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback trail far behind in both polling and market pricing, while other entrants like Casey DeSantis register negligible support. Ongoing campaign events and candidate exchanges have not narrowed the gap, though late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could still influence outcomes before the primary.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Byron Donalds maintains dominant trader consensus for the Republican nomination in Florida's August 18 gubernatorial primary, reflecting his commanding poll leads of 38 to 54 percent in recent surveys from Emerson College, Stetson University, and others. President Trump's complete endorsement, combined with Donalds' record $22 million first-quarter fundraising haul and broad support among likely Republican voters, has solidified his frontrunner status in the open race after Governor DeSantis' term limit. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback trail far behind in both polling and market pricing, while other entrants like Casey DeSantis register negligible support. Ongoing campaign events and candidate exchanges have not narrowed the gap, though late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could still influence outcomes before the primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 29 2026
Jay Collins’ market price slides to 5% after missing debate invitation
Collins was not invited to the televised GOP debate, signaling limited party support and pushing his price down to single digits.
Apr 18 2026
James Fishback’s poll numbers dip below 10% after fundraising reports
James Fishback dips to 9%3%
Fishback disclosed a modest $500,000 fundraising total, causing his market price to fall from 12% to 9% as donors shifted to Donalds.
Byron Donalds reached a peak market price of 93%, reflecting strong confidence in his likelihood to win the Republican primary for Florida governor as other candidates' support waned.
Apr 2 2026
Byron Donalds peaks at 93% after winning key endorsement from Florida Senate President
Byron Donalds jumps to 93%5%
The Florida Senate President publicly endorsed Donalds, creating a brief market peak to 93% before a modest pullback, while all other candidates fell to near‑zero.
Apr 1 2026
Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Governor DeSantis called a special legislative session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts, intensifying GOP infighting and political maneuvering in Florida. While this affected the broader political landscape, it had limited direct impact on the gubernatorial primary market.
Mar 14 2026
Byron Donalds hits 87% price after DeSantis hints at endorsement
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%
Governor Ron DeSantis said he would consider endorsing a candidate but did not name anyone; market inferred likely support for Donalds, sending his price to 87% and further marginalizing others.
Feb 25 2026
Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid continues to solidify
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Byron Donalds' campaign maintained its momentum as the primary frontrunner, with his market price rising steadily throughout the period.
Feb 25 2026
Byron Donalds maintains strong lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary market
Byron Donalds rises to 81%2%
Byron Donalds' market price remained high following his early announcement and Trump's endorsement, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.
Feb 19 2026
National Governors Association meeting disrupted by Trump excluding Democrats
The annual governors' meeting in Washington was upended after President Trump excluded Democratic governors from White House events, highlighting partisan tensions that may influence Republican primaries including Florida's.
Feb 10 2026
Byron Donalds reaches 81% market price after fundraising surge
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Donald’s campaign reported a $15 million fundraising haul, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his market price to a new high.
Jan 12 2026
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins joins 2026 governor Republican primary
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins officially announced his candidacy for governor, entering a primary field that already included Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.
During a televised GOP forum, Donalds outperformed rivals in a Q&A session, leading to a price jump from 81% to 82% as market participants interpreted his strong showing as a sign of inevitable nomination.
Dec 22 2025
Trump publicly praises Byron Donalds as preferred Florida governor candidate
Byron Donalds jumps to 81%11%
President Trump reiterated his support for Donalds in a televised interview, prompting a further price rise for Donalds to the low 80s and a corresponding decline for other candidates.
Dec 20 2025
Governor Ron DeSantis declines to endorse any primary candidate
DeSantis' neutrality removed a potential boost for other contenders, reinforcing Donalds' lead and contributing to the continued decline of the remaining candidates toward zero.
Dec 16 2025
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Collins' entry added a high‑profile state official to the field, briefly lifting his price from single digits to low‑teens before his support waned as Donalds' endorsement dominated the narrative.
Dec 12 2025
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Republican primary field
Byron Donalds jumps to 70%10%
A statewide poll released in mid‑December gave Donalds a double‑digit lead over his rivals, reinforcing his upward price trajectory to the low 70s.
Dec 9 2025
Azoria CEO James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 36%7%
James Fishback entered the race, positioning himself as a business outsider; the announcement shifted attention away from other fringe candidates, contributing to a modest dip in his own price and a slight rise for Donalds.
Dec 4 2025
James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 33%10%
Entrepreneur James Fishback entered the race, drawing limited media attention; his market price fell from 43% to the low 30s as donors and voters focused on higher‑profile candidates.
Dec 4 2025
Jay Collins' gubernatorial bid gains attention as lieutenant governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Following his announcement, Jay Collins' candidacy gained traction but faced challenges competing against Trump-backed Donalds, reflected in fluctuating market prices in early December 2025.
Dec 2 2025
Donald Trump endorses Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds jumps to 62%14%
Former President Trump publicly backed Byron Donalds, giving the candidate a major boost in national visibility and signaling party establishment support, which drove Donalds' price from the low‑40s to the high‑60s percent range.
Dec 2 2025
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 Florida governor race
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Jay Collins announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a DeSantis ally but without a clear endorsement, which coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 42% to the low single digits over the following weeks.
Dec 1 2025
Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the primary race against Trump-backed Byron Donalds, which initially caused a shift in market expectations.
Nov 25 2025
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed rival
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a key ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced a significant challenger and caused market shifts among candidates.
Byron Donalds' campaign for Florida governor, backed by Donald Trump, began the analysis window with strong market support, reflecting his status as the frontrunner.
Nov 25 2025
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds surges to 63%15%
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a DeSantis ally, officially entered the Republican primary, setting up a contest against Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds. This announcement clarified the primary field and influenced early market positioning, with Donalds gaining from Trump's backing and Collins entering as a credible contender.
"Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Byron Donalds" at 88%, followed by "James Fishback" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Byron Donalds" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Fishback" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.5 million traded on “Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 88¢ for "Byron Donalds" in the "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 88% chance that "Byron Donalds" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 88¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 12¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Aug 18, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" market has an active community of 51 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions