Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening and $42 million single-day Tuesday have set an unprecedented pace, pushing the film past $1 billion globally in just six days and establishing it as 2026’s top earner. Traders see these factors supporting a sophomore frame near the $140–160 million range, though August timing introduces greater uncertainty around the drop compared with holiday releases like Endgame. Industry tracking highlights competition between a 55–60% decline versus potential IMAX-driven resilience, leaving the 140–150 million and 150–160 million brackets nearly tied in market-implied odds. The upcoming weekend actuals will resolve the tight spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
150-160m 47%
140-150m 46%
130-140m 43%
<130m 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<130m
43%
130-140m
43%
140-150m
46%
150-160m
47%
160-170m
43%
170-180m
43%
180m+
43%
150-160m 47%
140-150m 46%
130-140m 43%
<130m 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<130m
$0 Vol.
43%
130-140m
$0 Vol.
43%
140-150m
$0 Vol.
46%
150-160m
$0 Vol.
47%
160-170m
$0 Vol.
43%
170-180m
$0 Vol.
43%
180m+
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening and $42 million single-day Tuesday have set an unprecedented pace, pushing the film past $1 billion globally in just six days and establishing it as 2026’s top earner. Traders see these factors supporting a sophomore frame near the $140–160 million range, though August timing introduces greater uncertainty around the drop compared with holiday releases like Endgame. Industry tracking highlights competition between a 55–60% decline versus potential IMAX-driven resilience, leaving the 140–150 million and 150–160 million brackets nearly tied in market-implied odds. The upcoming weekend actuals will resolve the tight spread.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening and $42 million single-day Tuesday have set an unprecedented pace, pushing the film past $1 billion globally in just six days and establishing it as 2026’s top earner. Traders see these factors supporting a sophomore frame near the $140–160 million range, though August timing introduces greater uncertainty around the drop compared with holiday releases like Endgame. Industry tracking highlights competition between a 55–60% decline versus potential IMAX-driven resilience, leaving the 140–150 million and 150–160 million brackets nearly tied in market-implied odds. The upcoming weekend actuals will resolve the tight spread.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening and $42 million single-day Tuesday have set an unprecedented pace, pushing the film past $1 billion globally in just six days and establishing it as 2026’s top earner. Traders see these factors supporting a sophomore frame near the $140–160 million range, though August timing introduces greater uncertainty around the drop compared with holiday releases like Endgame. Industry tracking highlights competition between a 55–60% decline versus potential IMAX-driven resilience, leaving the 140–150 million and 150–160 million brackets nearly tied in market-implied odds. The upcoming weekend actuals will resolve the tight spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions