The record $360 million domestic opening for Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a high baseline for its second weekend, yet trader consensus clusters tightly around the $180 million threshold amid typical post-debut drops for MCU entries. Strong critical reception near 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and solid word-of-mouth for its grounded street-level story support resilience, while competition from holdovers like The Odyssey and broader summer market dynamics introduce variability in audience retention. Historical patterns for Tom Holland-led Spider-Man films show second-weekend holds between 45-55% of opening grosses, creating the narrow spread between sub-$180 million and $180-190 million outcomes as the most probable scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<180m 48%
180-190m 43%
200-210m 41%
190-200m 39%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<180m
48%
180-190m
43%
190-200m
39%
200-210m
41%
210-220m
25%
220m+
21%
<180m 48%
180-190m 43%
200-210m 41%
190-200m 39%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<180m
$0 Vol.
48%
180-190m
$0 Vol.
43%
190-200m
$0 Vol.
39%
200-210m
$0 Vol.
41%
210-220m
$0 Vol.
25%
220m+
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The record $360 million domestic opening for Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a high baseline for its second weekend, yet trader consensus clusters tightly around the $180 million threshold amid typical post-debut drops for MCU entries. Strong critical reception near 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and solid word-of-mouth for its grounded street-level story support resilience, while competition from holdovers like The Odyssey and broader summer market dynamics introduce variability in audience retention. Historical patterns for Tom Holland-led Spider-Man films show second-weekend holds between 45-55% of opening grosses, creating the narrow spread between sub-$180 million and $180-190 million outcomes as the most probable scenarios.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The record $360 million domestic opening for Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a high baseline for its second weekend, yet trader consensus clusters tightly around the $180 million threshold amid typical post-debut drops for MCU entries. Strong critical reception near 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and solid word-of-mouth for its grounded street-level story support resilience, while competition from holdovers like The Odyssey and broader summer market dynamics introduce variability in audience retention. Historical patterns for Tom Holland-led Spider-Man films show second-weekend holds between 45-55% of opening grosses, creating the narrow spread between sub-$180 million and $180-190 million outcomes as the most probable scenarios.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The record $360 million domestic opening for Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a high baseline for its second weekend, yet trader consensus clusters tightly around the $180 million threshold amid typical post-debut drops for MCU entries. Strong critical reception near 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and solid word-of-mouth for its grounded street-level story support resilience, while competition from holdovers like The Odyssey and broader summer market dynamics introduce variability in audience retention. Historical patterns for Tom Holland-led Spider-Man films show second-weekend holds between 45-55% of opening grosses, creating the narrow spread between sub-$180 million and $180-190 million outcomes as the most probable scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions