Recent Middle East supply disruptions tied to Iran-related tensions have kept WTI crude elevated near $91 per barrel in early October 2026, with prices fluctuating between $85 and $100 amid backwardation reflecting tight near-term balances. OPEC+ maintained November production targets unchanged following its October 4 meeting, while U.S. commercial inventories built modestly to 427 million barrels, tempering some bullish momentum. IEA forecasts show global demand contracting 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026 due to high prices and reduced refinery runs, offset partially by non-OPEC supply growth. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory data and any diplomatic progress on Hormuz transit flows that could ease the geopolitical premium priced into futures.