Polymarket traders price a 24% implied probability of an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, driven by strict resolution criteria requiring three simultaneous triggers like a 50% drop in NVIDIA stock from its all-time high, semiconductor ETF declines, OpenAI bankruptcy, or H100 GPU rental prices crashing below $1—none yet met despite early 2026 volatility where Big Tech stocks shed 12-20% year-to-date. Sustained hyperscaler capital expenditures, projected at $725 billion for AI infrastructure with Q1 already up 73% to $174 billion, alongside NVIDIA's fresh $40 billion equity commitments including $30 billion to OpenAI, reinforce trader confidence in ongoing demand for large language models and data centers. Upcoming Q2 earnings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta, plus major model releases, could shift sentiment if profitability shortfalls emerge or benchmarks validate returns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,826,318 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
23%
$2,826,318 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$2,238,323 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Polymarket traders price a 24% implied probability of an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, driven by strict resolution criteria requiring three simultaneous triggers like a 50% drop in NVIDIA stock from its all-time high, semiconductor ETF declines, OpenAI bankruptcy, or H100 GPU rental prices crashing below $1—none yet met despite early 2026 volatility where Big Tech stocks shed 12-20% year-to-date. Sustained hyperscaler capital expenditures, projected at $725 billion for AI infrastructure with Q1 already up 73% to $174 billion, alongside NVIDIA's fresh $40 billion equity commitments including $30 billion to OpenAI, reinforce trader confidence in ongoing demand for large language models and data centers. Upcoming Q2 earnings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta, plus major model releases, could shift sentiment if profitability shortfalls emerge or benchmarks validate returns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$2,826,318End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Polymarket traders price a 24% implied probability of an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, driven by strict resolution criteria requiring three simultaneous triggers like a 50% drop in NVIDIA stock from its all-time high, semiconductor ETF declines, OpenAI bankruptcy, or H100 GPU rental prices crashing below $1—none yet met despite early 2026 volatility where Big Tech stocks shed 12-20% year-to-date. Sustained hyperscaler capital expenditures, projected at $725 billion for AI infrastructure with Q1 already up 73% to $174 billion, alongside NVIDIA's fresh $40 billion equity commitments including $30 billion to OpenAI, reinforce trader confidence in ongoing demand for large language models and data centers. Upcoming Q2 earnings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta, plus major model releases, could shift sentiment if profitability shortfalls emerge or benchmarks validate returns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,826,318End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 24% implied probability of an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, driven by strict resolution criteria requiring three simultaneous triggers like a 50% drop in NVIDIA stock from its all-time high, semiconductor ETF declines, OpenAI bankruptcy, or H100 GPU rental prices crashing below $1—none yet met despite early 2026 volatility where Big Tech stocks shed 12-20% year-to-date. Sustained hyperscaler capital expenditures, projected at $725 billion for AI infrastructure with Q1 already up 73% to $174 billion, alongside NVIDIA's fresh $40 billion equity commitments including $30 billion to OpenAI, reinforce trader confidence in ongoing demand for large language models and data centers. Upcoming Q2 earnings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta, plus major model releases, could shift sentiment if profitability shortfalls emerge or benchmarks validate returns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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