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icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$804,041 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$804,041 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$116,079 Vol.

10%

icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$362,866 Vol.

10%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$76,690 Vol.

7%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$13,262 Vol.

6%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$10,051 Vol.

5%

icon for Syria

Syria

$22,317 Vol.

5%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$14,037 Vol.

4%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$15,023 Vol.

4%

icon for Iran

Iran

$17,462 Vol.

4%

icon for North Korea

North Korea

$20,818 Vol.

4%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$21,335 Vol.

3%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$23,627 Vol.

3%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$19,849 Vol.

3%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$14,388 Vol.

3%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$39,120 Vol.

2%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$17,117 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the durability of existing normalization under the Abraham Accords alongside stalled expansion. Morocco and Israel agreed in mid-September 2026 to upgrade liaison offices to full embassies, appoint ambassadors, and restore direct flights, building on their 2020 recognition. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any diplomatic ties on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood, a stance reinforced by US efforts to link Riyadh’s nuclear and defense arrangements to normalization. Broader Arab and Muslim-majority holdouts remain influenced by the Gaza conflict and the September 2025 wave of Western recognitions of Palestine. With the December 31 deadline approaching, trader focus rests on whether US diplomatic pressure or bilateral security talks can produce any additional formal recognitions in the remaining months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$804,041
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the durability of existing normalization under the Abraham Accords alongside stalled expansion. Morocco and Israel agreed in mid-September 2026 to upgrade liaison offices to full embassies, appoint ambassadors, and restore direct flights, building on their 2020 recognition. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any diplomatic ties on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood, a stance reinforced by US efforts to link Riyadh’s nuclear and defense arrangements to normalization. Broader Arab and Muslim-majority holdouts remain influenced by the Gaza conflict and the September 2025 wave of Western recognitions of Palestine. With the December 31 deadline approaching, trader focus rests on whether US diplomatic pressure or bilateral security talks can produce any additional formal recognitions in the remaining months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$804,041
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lebanon" at 10%, followed by "Venezuela" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" has generated $804K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is "Lebanon" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Venezuela" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.