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icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$487,067 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$487,067 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$135,177 Vol.

83%

icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$108,581 Vol.

13%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$53,731 Vol.

10%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$16,709 Vol.

9%

icon for Syria

Syria

$18,071 Vol.

7%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$11,778 Vol.

7%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$4,426 Vol.

6%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$13,866 Vol.

6%

icon for Iran

Iran

$11,970 Vol.

5%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$11,891 Vol.

5%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$8,276 Vol.

4%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$11,962 Vol.

4%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$32,892 Vol.

4%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$17,891 Vol.

4%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$11,536 Vol.

4%

icon for North Korea

North Korea

$18,312 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Saudi Arabia's insistence on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood continues to block its recognition of Israel, shaping trader assessments of limited new diplomatic breakthroughs by December 31, 2026. As of early 2026, Israel maintains formal recognition from 169 UN member states, with non-recognizers concentrated in the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation. A July 2026 U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement has been publicly linked by the Trump administration to normalization, yet Riyadh has reaffirmed its conditions amid regional security concerns involving Iran. U.S. diplomatic pressure to expand the Abraham Accords to additional states faces similar hurdles, while minor consular restorations, such as with Venezuela, illustrate incremental rather than transformative shifts. Any resolution of the Palestinian issue or major security realignments could alter timelines before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$487,067
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Saudi Arabia's insistence on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood continues to block its recognition of Israel, shaping trader assessments of limited new diplomatic breakthroughs by December 31, 2026. As of early 2026, Israel maintains formal recognition from 169 UN member states, with non-recognizers concentrated in the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation. A July 2026 U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement has been publicly linked by the Trump administration to normalization, yet Riyadh has reaffirmed its conditions amid regional security concerns involving Iran. U.S. diplomatic pressure to expand the Abraham Accords to additional states faces similar hurdles, while minor consular restorations, such as with Venezuela, illustrate incremental rather than transformative shifts. Any resolution of the Palestinian issue or major security realignments could alter timelines before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$487,067
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Venezuela" at 83%, followed by "Lebanon" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" has generated $487.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is "Venezuela" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lebanon" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.