Avengers: Doomsday leads the market with a 69.5% implied probability due to its status as the next major Avengers installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, amplified by Robert Downey Jr.’s high-profile casting as Doctor Doom and ongoing franchise momentum that historically drives record opening weeks. Traders are pricing in strong pre-release tracking, social buzz, and crossover appeal against more contained entries like Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey at 13.4% and the next Spider-Man film at 19.0%, both of which benefit from director pedigree and established audiences but lack the same event-level scale. Later 2026 titles such as The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie sit lower as their marketing cycles remain earlier and face stiffer competition from established superhero tentpoles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 22%
The Odyssey 8.7%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 7.3%
$13,195 Vol.
$13,195 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
22%
The Odyssey
9%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
7%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
6%
Toy Story 5
3%
Dune: Messiah
1%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
1%
Avengers: Doomsday 70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 22%
The Odyssey 8.7%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 7.3%
$13,195 Vol.
$13,195 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$729 Vol.
70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$585 Vol.
22%
The Odyssey
$573 Vol.
9%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$493 Vol.
7%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$798 Vol.
6%
Toy Story 5
$495 Vol.
3%
Dune: Messiah
$663 Vol.
1%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
$494 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads the market with a 69.5% implied probability due to its status as the next major Avengers installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, amplified by Robert Downey Jr.’s high-profile casting as Doctor Doom and ongoing franchise momentum that historically drives record opening weeks. Traders are pricing in strong pre-release tracking, social buzz, and crossover appeal against more contained entries like Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey at 13.4% and the next Spider-Man film at 19.0%, both of which benefit from director pedigree and established audiences but lack the same event-level scale. Later 2026 titles such as The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie sit lower as their marketing cycles remain earlier and face stiffer competition from established superhero tentpoles.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$13,195End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads the market with a 69.5% implied probability due to its status as the next major Avengers installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, amplified by Robert Downey Jr.’s high-profile casting as Doctor Doom and ongoing franchise momentum that historically drives record opening weeks. Traders are pricing in strong pre-release tracking, social buzz, and crossover appeal against more contained entries like Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey at 13.4% and the next Spider-Man film at 19.0%, both of which benefit from director pedigree and established audiences but lack the same event-level scale. Later 2026 titles such as The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie sit lower as their marketing cycles remain earlier and face stiffer competition from established superhero tentpoles.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$13,195End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday leads the market with a 69.5% implied probability due to its status as the next major Avengers installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, amplified by Robert Downey Jr.’s high-profile casting as Doctor Doom and ongoing franchise momentum that historically drives record opening weeks. Traders are pricing in strong pre-release tracking, social buzz, and crossover appeal against more contained entries like Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey at 13.4% and the next Spider-Man film at 19.0%, both of which benefit from director pedigree and established audiences but lack the same event-level scale. Later 2026 titles such as The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie sit lower as their marketing cycles remain earlier and face stiffer competition from established superhero tentpoles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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