Strong preview performance and surging presales have positioned *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* as a likely contender to challenge Avengers: Endgame’s $357 million domestic opening weekend record, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability for a Yes outcome. The film delivered a record $72 million in previews—surpassing Endgame’s prior benchmark—and is tracking for a domestic debut in the $250–300 million range, with some forecasts pushing higher amid 91% critical approval on Rotten Tomatoes and robust global presales exceeding $120 million. Traders are pricing in Spider-Man’s enduring audience appeal and lack of superhero fatigue for the Tom Holland-led franchise, even without premium IMAX screens due to competing releases. The immediate catalyst remains this weekend’s full box office results, which will confirm whether momentum sustains through Sunday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
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Aug 2, 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong preview performance and surging presales have positioned *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* as a likely contender to challenge Avengers: Endgame’s $357 million domestic opening weekend record, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability for a Yes outcome. The film delivered a record $72 million in previews—surpassing Endgame’s prior benchmark—and is tracking for a domestic debut in the $250–300 million range, with some forecasts pushing higher amid 91% critical approval on Rotten Tomatoes and robust global presales exceeding $120 million. Traders are pricing in Spider-Man’s enduring audience appeal and lack of superhero fatigue for the Tom Holland-led franchise, even without premium IMAX screens due to competing releases. The immediate catalyst remains this weekend’s full box office results, which will confirm whether momentum sustains through Sunday.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$5,279End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong preview performance and surging presales have positioned *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* as a likely contender to challenge Avengers: Endgame’s $357 million domestic opening weekend record, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability for a Yes outcome. The film delivered a record $72 million in previews—surpassing Endgame’s prior benchmark—and is tracking for a domestic debut in the $250–300 million range, with some forecasts pushing higher amid 91% critical approval on Rotten Tomatoes and robust global presales exceeding $120 million. Traders are pricing in Spider-Man’s enduring audience appeal and lack of superhero fatigue for the Tom Holland-led franchise, even without premium IMAX screens due to competing releases. The immediate catalyst remains this weekend’s full box office results, which will confirm whether momentum sustains through Sunday.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$5,279End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong preview performance and surging presales have positioned *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* as a likely contender to challenge Avengers: Endgame’s $357 million domestic opening weekend record, driving the 76.5% market-implied probability for a Yes outcome. The film delivered a record $72 million in previews—surpassing Endgame’s prior benchmark—and is tracking for a domestic debut in the $250–300 million range, with some forecasts pushing higher amid 91% critical approval on Rotten Tomatoes and robust global presales exceeding $120 million. Traders are pricing in Spider-Man’s enduring audience appeal and lack of superhero fatigue for the Tom Holland-led franchise, even without premium IMAX screens due to competing releases. The immediate catalyst remains this weekend’s full box office results, which will confirm whether momentum sustains through Sunday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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