Strong pre-release tracking and a record-shattering $72 million in domestic previews have fueled trader consensus around mid-to-high 160s million for opening day, reflecting expectations that "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will deliver one of the largest single-day starts in history. Recent industry reports highlight surging advance sales, premium format demand, and Tom Holland-led buzz that pushed projections from an initial $180–190 million weekend range upward, with some analysts eyeing $260–300 million total. The tight clustering of probabilities across the 162–182 million brackets signals uncertainty over front-loading versus sustained Friday performance, as historical superhero launches show variability once actual grosses roll in. Key catalysts ahead include the first full-day numbers and comparisons to prior MCU benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office (Higher Strikes)
167-172m 65%
162-167m 55%
172-177m 50%
177-182m 50%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
<152m
3%
152-157m
48%
157-162m
12%
162-167m
55%
167-172m
65%
172-177m
50%
177-182m
50%
182m+
50%
167-172m 65%
162-167m 55%
172-177m 50%
177-182m 50%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
<152m
$0 Vol.
3%
152-157m
$0 Vol.
48%
157-162m
$0 Vol.
12%
162-167m
$0 Vol.
55%
167-172m
$0 Vol.
65%
172-177m
$0 Vol.
50%
177-182m
$0 Vol.
50%
182m+
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong pre-release tracking and a record-shattering $72 million in domestic previews have fueled trader consensus around mid-to-high 160s million for opening day, reflecting expectations that "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will deliver one of the largest single-day starts in history. Recent industry reports highlight surging advance sales, premium format demand, and Tom Holland-led buzz that pushed projections from an initial $180–190 million weekend range upward, with some analysts eyeing $260–300 million total. The tight clustering of probabilities across the 162–182 million brackets signals uncertainty over front-loading versus sustained Friday performance, as historical superhero launches show variability once actual grosses roll in. Key catalysts ahead include the first full-day numbers and comparisons to prior MCU benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong pre-release tracking and a record-shattering $72 million in domestic previews have fueled trader consensus around mid-to-high 160s million for opening day, reflecting expectations that "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will deliver one of the largest single-day starts in history. Recent industry reports highlight surging advance sales, premium format demand, and Tom Holland-led buzz that pushed projections from an initial $180–190 million weekend range upward, with some analysts eyeing $260–300 million total. The tight clustering of probabilities across the 162–182 million brackets signals uncertainty over front-loading versus sustained Friday performance, as historical superhero launches show variability once actual grosses roll in. Key catalysts ahead include the first full-day numbers and comparisons to prior MCU benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for July 31 (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 11:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong pre-release tracking and a record-shattering $72 million in domestic previews have fueled trader consensus around mid-to-high 160s million for opening day, reflecting expectations that "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will deliver one of the largest single-day starts in history. Recent industry reports highlight surging advance sales, premium format demand, and Tom Holland-led buzz that pushed projections from an initial $180–190 million weekend range upward, with some analysts eyeing $260–300 million total. The tight clustering of probabilities across the 162–182 million brackets signals uncertainty over front-loading versus sustained Friday performance, as historical superhero launches show variability once actual grosses roll in. Key catalysts ahead include the first full-day numbers and comparisons to prior MCU benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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