**No early presidential elections are scheduled or strongly signaled for 2026.** Turkey’s next regular presidential and parliamentary vote remains set for no later than May 2028 under the constitution, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a two-term limit that would normally bar a third run unless early elections are called or the constitution is amended. Recent developments reinforce the low probability of a 2026 snap vote. In May 2026 an appeals court annulled the 2023 leadership election of the main opposition CHP, removing its leader Özgür Özel, while the government has continued arrests and prosecutions of opposition figures, including Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. These judicial moves have weakened the opposition’s capacity to force early polls through parliamentary maneuvers or public pressure. The ruling AKP-led alliance has shown no public push for the three-fifths parliamentary majority required to advance the date, and economic pressures have not yet produced the political conditions that historically prompted snap elections. Opposition calls for early voting persist but lack leverage amid the crackdown. Analysts note that any early election would require coordinated legislative action that appears distant in mid-2026. The trader consensus reflected in the 82.5% “No” price aligns with the absence of concrete procedural steps or official announcements pointing to a 2026 contest.