Turkey's ruling AKP continues preparatory work on a new civilian constitution through a presidential commission and party efforts, yet lacks the parliamentary thresholds—360 seats for a referendum or 400 for direct amendment—needed to advance it meaningfully in 2026. With the party holding roughly 321 seats and facing opposition resistance plus public polling against term-limit changes, broad consensus remains elusive despite Erdoğan's May 2025 appointment of legal experts and repeated calls for reform tied to the Kurdish peace process. Recent statements from party officials and the parliament speaker project a possible 2026-2027 timeline, but stalled cross-party negotiations and competing priorities keep substantial movement unlikely this year, aligning with traders' strong consensus against action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated18% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
18% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling AKP continues preparatory work on a new civilian constitution through a presidential commission and party efforts, yet lacks the parliamentary thresholds—360 seats for a referendum or 400 for direct amendment—needed to advance it meaningfully in 2026. With the party holding roughly 321 seats and facing opposition resistance plus public polling against term-limit changes, broad consensus remains elusive despite Erdoğan's May 2025 appointment of legal experts and repeated calls for reform tied to the Kurdish peace process. Recent statements from party officials and the parliament speaker project a possible 2026-2027 timeline, but stalled cross-party negotiations and competing priorities keep substantial movement unlikely this year, aligning with traders' strong consensus against action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$6,170End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling AKP continues preparatory work on a new civilian constitution through a presidential commission and party efforts, yet lacks the parliamentary thresholds—360 seats for a referendum or 400 for direct amendment—needed to advance it meaningfully in 2026. With the party holding roughly 321 seats and facing opposition resistance plus public polling against term-limit changes, broad consensus remains elusive despite Erdoğan's May 2025 appointment of legal experts and repeated calls for reform tied to the Kurdish peace process. Recent statements from party officials and the parliament speaker project a possible 2026-2027 timeline, but stalled cross-party negotiations and competing priorities keep substantial movement unlikely this year, aligning with traders' strong consensus against action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,170End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey's ruling AKP continues preparatory work on a new civilian constitution through a presidential commission and party efforts, yet lacks the parliamentary thresholds—360 seats for a referendum or 400 for direct amendment—needed to advance it meaningfully in 2026. With the party holding roughly 321 seats and facing opposition resistance plus public polling against term-limit changes, broad consensus remains elusive despite Erdoğan's May 2025 appointment of legal experts and repeated calls for reform tied to the Kurdish peace process. Recent statements from party officials and the parliament speaker project a possible 2026-2027 timeline, but stalled cross-party negotiations and competing priorities keep substantial movement unlikely this year, aligning with traders' strong consensus against action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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