President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan renewed calls for a civilian constitution during the October 1, 2026, opening of Turkey’s parliamentary session, framing the coming year as a potential “year of the Constitution” and linking the effort to recent cross-party support for the “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework law. No draft text, specific amendments, or referendum timetable has been presented, however, and the AKP-led alliance holds only about 326 seats—well short of the 360 needed to trigger early elections or the 400 required to enact changes without a popular vote. Opposition parties, including the main opposition group, have signaled resistance or walked out of proceedings, while broader consensus remains untested. These structural and political hurdles explain why traders assign an 80.5% probability that no constitutional referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.