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icon for World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?
Sports·2026 FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?

icon for World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?
Sports·2026 FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?

8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States National Team takes the field to play the Iran National Team at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the match is scheduled and later cancelled, without a make-up date, this market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the matchup cannot be confirmed within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be the official results published by FIFA. USA and Iran occupy separate 2026 World Cup groups—USA in Group D alongside Australia, Paraguay, and Türkiye, while Iran sits in Group G with Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand—eliminating any group-stage meeting. Both sides must advance through the expanded 48-team format into the round of 32 and beyond, then align on a knockout bracket path that rarely occurs given typical seeding and regional allocations. Recent group results show USA posting strong early wins while Iran remains competitive yet faces tougher opposition; neither roster reports major injuries altering advancement odds materially. Trader consensus at 91% for no matchup reflects these structural barriers and historical precedent for limited cross-group collisions in later stages.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States National Team takes the field to play the Iran National Team at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the match is scheduled and later cancelled, without a make-up date, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the matchup cannot be confirmed within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be the official results published by FIFA.
Volume
$121
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States National Team takes the field to play the Iran National Team at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the match is scheduled and later cancelled, without a make-up date, this market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the matchup cannot be confirmed within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be the official results published by FIFA.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States National Team takes the field to play the Iran National Team at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the match is scheduled and later cancelled, without a make-up date, this market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the matchup cannot be confirmed within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be the official results published by FIFA. USA and Iran occupy separate 2026 World Cup groups—USA in Group D alongside Australia, Paraguay, and Türkiye, while Iran sits in Group G with Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand—eliminating any group-stage meeting. Both sides must advance through the expanded 48-team format into the round of 32 and beyond, then align on a knockout bracket path that rarely occurs given typical seeding and regional allocations. Recent group results show USA posting strong early wins while Iran remains competitive yet faces tougher opposition; neither roster reports major injuries altering advancement odds materially. Trader consensus at 91% for no matchup reflects these structural barriers and historical precedent for limited cross-group collisions in later stages.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States National Team takes the field to play the Iran National Team at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the match is scheduled and later cancelled, without a make-up date, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the matchup cannot be confirmed within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be the official results published by FIFA.
Volume
$121
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States National Team takes the field to play the Iran National Team at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the match is scheduled and later cancelled, without a make-up date, this market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the matchup cannot be confirmed within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be the official results published by FIFA.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?" is 8% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.