Erdogan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitutional framework, with the next nationwide elections not scheduled until then, providing the primary structural barrier to any early departure. Recent diplomatic activity, including his September 2025 White House meeting with President Trump and address to the UN General Assembly, alongside domestic steps such as unveiling economic reform measures, have underscored his continued command of the AKP and state institutions. Official statements have repeatedly dismissed circulating health rumors as baseless, and the president has maintained a visible public schedule into 2026. These factors have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 89.5 percent probability that Erdogan will remain in office through December 31, 2026.