Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through May 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next scheduled election set for that date and no snap vote or parliamentary action currently on the horizon. His Justice and Development Party maintains firm institutional control amid a fragmented and legally pressured opposition, while public statements from the president and advisers reference completion of the term without early departure. Recent months have seen no verified health, institutional, or diplomatic crises that would trigger removal or resignation. Trader consensus at 95.5% for “No” reflects these structural barriers and the absence of catalysts before December 2026. Late shifts could still arise from sudden health events, major scandals, or an unforeseen parliamentary decision to call early elections, though such developments remain low-probability given current alignments.