The elevated 94.5% implied probability against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro entering U.S. custody by June 30 reflects the absence of any viable legal or operational pathway for his transfer, despite recent Justice Department preparations to seek a federal indictment tied to the 1996 downing of civilian aircraft. These steps form part of broader Trump administration pressure on Havana, including sanctions and diplomatic signals, yet no extradition treaty exists between the two nations, Cuban authorities have signaled no intent to cooperate, and no military or law-enforcement action targeting Castro’s removal from Havana has been announced. Historical patterns of indictments against foreign officials show that formal charges rarely produce swift custody absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or force, neither of which appears imminent before the market’s resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.The elevated 94.5% implied probability against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro entering U.S. custody by June 30 reflects the absence of any viable legal or operational pathway for his transfer, despite recent Justice Department preparations to seek a federal indictment tied to the 1996 downing of civilian aircraft. These steps form part of broader Trump administration pressure on Havana, including sanctions and diplomatic signals, yet no extradition treaty exists between the two nations, Cuban authorities have signaled no intent to cooperate, and no military or law-enforcement action targeting Castro’s removal from Havana has been announced. Historical patterns of indictments against foreign officials show that formal charges rarely produce swift custody absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or force, neither of which appears imminent before the market’s resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Volume
$189Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.The elevated 94.5% implied probability against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro entering U.S. custody by June 30 reflects the absence of any viable legal or operational pathway for his transfer, despite recent Justice Department preparations to seek a federal indictment tied to the 1996 downing of civilian aircraft. These steps form part of broader Trump administration pressure on Havana, including sanctions and diplomatic signals, yet no extradition treaty exists between the two nations, Cuban authorities have signaled no intent to cooperate, and no military or law-enforcement action targeting Castro’s removal from Havana has been announced. Historical patterns of indictments against foreign officials show that formal charges rarely produce swift custody absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or force, neither of which appears imminent before the market’s resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The elevated 94.5% implied probability against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro entering U.S. custody by June 30 reflects the absence of any viable legal or operational pathway for his transfer, despite recent Justice Department preparations to seek a federal indictment tied to the 1996 downing of civilian aircraft. These steps form part of broader Trump administration pressure on Havana, including sanctions and diplomatic signals, yet no extradition treaty exists between the two nations, Cuban authorities have signaled no intent to cooperate, and no military or law-enforcement action targeting Castro’s removal from Havana has been announced. Historical patterns of indictments against foreign officials show that formal charges rarely produce swift custody absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or force, neither of which appears imminent before the market’s resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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