In the Kentucky Fourth Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus shows multiple margin-of-victory outcomes for incumbent Thomas Massie and challenger Gallrein each priced at 46.5 percent, underscoring a tight race with limited separation. This positioning reflects the absence of recent polling averages or high-profile endorsements that would clarify voter preferences among primary participants in the solidly Republican district. Massie’s established positions on fiscal restraint and foreign policy continue to resonate with core supporters, while Gallrein’s campaign emphasizes local issues and a fresh alternative. Developments such as candidate debates, shifts in early voting turnout, or last-minute endorsements from state officials could expand one candidate’s lead and realign probabilities ahead of primary day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourKY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
Gallrein 6-9 % 29%
Massie <3% 26%
Gallrein <3% 25%
Massie 6%+ 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 mai 2026
Gallrein 9 %+
21%
Gallrein 6-9 %
29%
Gallrein 3-6%
15%
Gallrein <3%
25%
Massie <3%
26%
Massie 3-6%
28%
Massie 6%+
25%
Other
4%
Gallrein 6-9 % 29%
Massie <3% 26%
Gallrein <3% 25%
Massie 6%+ 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 mai 2026
Gallrein 9 %+
$188 Vol.
21%
Gallrein 6-9 %
$65 Vol.
29%
Gallrein 3-6%
$20 Vol.
15%
Gallrein <3%
$20 Vol.
25%
Massie <3%
$20 Vol.
26%
Massie 3-6%
$20 Vol.
28%
Massie 6%+
$20 Vol.
25%
Other
$227 Vol.
4%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.In the Kentucky Fourth Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus shows multiple margin-of-victory outcomes for incumbent Thomas Massie and challenger Gallrein each priced at 46.5 percent, underscoring a tight race with limited separation. This positioning reflects the absence of recent polling averages or high-profile endorsements that would clarify voter preferences among primary participants in the solidly Republican district. Massie’s established positions on fiscal restraint and foreign policy continue to resonate with core supporters, while Gallrein’s campaign emphasizes local issues and a fresh alternative. Developments such as candidate debates, shifts in early voting turnout, or last-minute endorsements from state officials could expand one candidate’s lead and realign probabilities ahead of primary day.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
Volume
$581Date de fin
19 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.In the Kentucky Fourth Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus shows multiple margin-of-victory outcomes for incumbent Thomas Massie and challenger Gallrein each priced at 46.5 percent, underscoring a tight race with limited separation. This positioning reflects the absence of recent polling averages or high-profile endorsements that would clarify voter preferences among primary participants in the solidly Republican district. Massie’s established positions on fiscal restraint and foreign policy continue to resonate with core supporters, while Gallrein’s campaign emphasizes local issues and a fresh alternative. Developments such as candidate debates, shifts in early voting turnout, or last-minute endorsements from state officials could expand one candidate’s lead and realign probabilities ahead of primary day.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$581Date de fin
19 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the Kentucky Fourth Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus shows multiple margin-of-victory outcomes for incumbent Thomas Massie and challenger Gallrein each priced at 46.5 percent, underscoring a tight race with limited separation. This positioning reflects the absence of recent polling averages or high-profile endorsements that would clarify voter preferences among primary participants in the solidly Republican district. Massie’s established positions on fiscal restraint and foreign policy continue to resonate with core supporters, while Gallrein’s campaign emphasizes local issues and a fresh alternative. Developments such as candidate debates, shifts in early voting turnout, or last-minute endorsements from state officials could expand one candidate’s lead and realign probabilities ahead of primary day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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