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Politique·Élection Américaine

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
Politique·Élection Américaine

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

21% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
21% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.The fragmented field of candidates in the June 2, 2026, Los Angeles mayoral primary, combined with persistently high undecided voters near 40 percent in recent UCLA Luskin and Emerson polling, makes an outright majority unlikely. Incumbent Karen Bass holds a polling lead but remains well below 50 percent support amid criticism over homelessness, public safety, and infrastructure timing, while challengers including Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman continue to draw distinct voter blocs. Historical patterns for Los Angeles nonpartisan primaries and current vote splits point to a November runoff between the top two finishers, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 79 percent implied probability against a first-round winner.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
2 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.The fragmented field of candidates in the June 2, 2026, Los Angeles mayoral primary, combined with persistently high undecided voters near 40 percent in recent UCLA Luskin and Emerson polling, makes an outright majority unlikely. Incumbent Karen Bass holds a polling lead but remains well below 50 percent support amid criticism over homelessness, public safety, and infrastructure timing, while challengers including Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman continue to draw distinct voter blocs. Historical patterns for Los Angeles nonpartisan primaries and current vote splits point to a November runoff between the top two finishers, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 79 percent implied probability against a first-round winner.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
2 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.

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Questions fréquentes

« First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 21% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 21¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 21% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le May 15, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? » est de 21% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 21% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.