Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.7% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled privatization momentum despite early Trump administration signals for a Q2 partial offering. FHFA Director Bill Pulte's May statements reaffirm the goal under presidential discretion, but persistent hurdles—including Treasury recapitalization requirements, FHFA capital buildup to meet 2.5% standards, and regulatory complexities—have eroded confidence, as evidenced by GSE preferred shares hitting 52-week lows and KBW's April assessment deeming release unlikely before November midterms. Mizuho's recent Buy initiation assigns only 30% odds of pre-2028 exit. Realistic challenges include an expedited Treasury warrant exercise or FHFA policy shift, though time constraints limit feasibility ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026 95.7%
150–200 milliards 2.5%
300Md+ <1%
<150 Md$ <1%
$200,592 Vol.
$200,592 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<150 Md$
<1%
150–200 milliards
3%
200–250 Md$
<1%
250–300 Mds $
<1%
300Md+
1%
Aucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026
96%
Aucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026 95.7%
150–200 milliards 2.5%
300Md+ <1%
<150 Md$ <1%
$200,592 Vol.
$200,592 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<150 Md$
$81,902 Vol.
<1%
150–200 milliards
$32,443 Vol.
3%
200–250 Md$
$20,034 Vol.
<1%
250–300 Mds $
$6,705 Vol.
<1%
300Md+
$11,975 Vol.
1%
Aucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026
$47,533 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.7% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled privatization momentum despite early Trump administration signals for a Q2 partial offering. FHFA Director Bill Pulte's May statements reaffirm the goal under presidential discretion, but persistent hurdles—including Treasury recapitalization requirements, FHFA capital buildup to meet 2.5% standards, and regulatory complexities—have eroded confidence, as evidenced by GSE preferred shares hitting 52-week lows and KBW's April assessment deeming release unlikely before November midterms. Mizuho's recent Buy initiation assigns only 30% odds of pre-2028 exit. Realistic challenges include an expedited Treasury warrant exercise or FHFA policy shift, though time constraints limit feasibility ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$200,592Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.7% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled privatization momentum despite early Trump administration signals for a Q2 partial offering. FHFA Director Bill Pulte's May statements reaffirm the goal under presidential discretion, but persistent hurdles—including Treasury recapitalization requirements, FHFA capital buildup to meet 2.5% standards, and regulatory complexities—have eroded confidence, as evidenced by GSE preferred shares hitting 52-week lows and KBW's April assessment deeming release unlikely before November midterms. Mizuho's recent Buy initiation assigns only 30% odds of pre-2028 exit. Realistic challenges include an expedited Treasury warrant exercise or FHFA policy shift, though time constraints limit feasibility ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$200,592Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.7% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled privatization momentum despite early Trump administration signals for a Q2 partial offering. FHFA Director Bill Pulte's May statements reaffirm the goal under presidential discretion, but persistent hurdles—including Treasury recapitalization requirements, FHFA capital buildup to meet 2.5% standards, and regulatory complexities—have eroded confidence, as evidenced by GSE preferred shares hitting 52-week lows and KBW's April assessment deeming release unlikely before November midterms. Mizuho's recent Buy initiation assigns only 30% odds of pre-2028 exit. Realistic challenges include an expedited Treasury warrant exercise or FHFA policy shift, though time constraints limit feasibility ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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