Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026 after missing its original Q1 and subsequent Q2 targets, with xAI confirming only that the 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model is still training on the expanding Colossus supercluster. Trader sentiment reflects this slippage alongside xAI’s rapid iterative cadence—shipping Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in mid-August—while positioning Grok 5 as the end-of-2026 flagship capable of AGI-level performance. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese models, plus integration with SpaceX engineering data, sustains focus on capability jumps rather than exact timing. Key upcoming catalysts include further Colossus scaling beyond 2 GW and any new Musk or @grok statements clarifying a concrete window before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
31 août
<1%
31 octobre
18%
30 novembre
50%
31 décembre
70%
$8,565 Vol.
31 août
$3,541 Vol.
<1%
31 octobre
$1,769 Vol.
18%
30 novembre
$21 Vol.
50%
31 décembre
$1,711 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026 after missing its original Q1 and subsequent Q2 targets, with xAI confirming only that the 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model is still training on the expanding Colossus supercluster. Trader sentiment reflects this slippage alongside xAI’s rapid iterative cadence—shipping Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in mid-August—while positioning Grok 5 as the end-of-2026 flagship capable of AGI-level performance. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese models, plus integration with SpaceX engineering data, sustains focus on capability jumps rather than exact timing. Key upcoming catalysts include further Colossus scaling beyond 2 GW and any new Musk or @grok statements clarifying a concrete window before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,565Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026 after missing its original Q1 and subsequent Q2 targets, with xAI confirming only that the 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model is still training on the expanding Colossus supercluster. Trader sentiment reflects this slippage alongside xAI’s rapid iterative cadence—shipping Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in mid-August—while positioning Grok 5 as the end-of-2026 flagship capable of AGI-level performance. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese models, plus integration with SpaceX engineering data, sustains focus on capability jumps rather than exact timing. Key upcoming catalysts include further Colossus scaling beyond 2 GW and any new Musk or @grok statements clarifying a concrete window before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,565Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026 after missing its original Q1 and subsequent Q2 targets, with xAI confirming only that the 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model is still training on the expanding Colossus supercluster. Trader sentiment reflects this slippage alongside xAI’s rapid iterative cadence—shipping Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in mid-August—while positioning Grok 5 as the end-of-2026 flagship capable of AGI-level performance. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese models, plus integration with SpaceX engineering data, sustains focus on capability jumps rather than exact timing. Key upcoming catalysts include further Colossus scaling beyond 2 GW and any new Musk or @grok statements clarifying a concrete window before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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