**Trader sentiment heavily favors a 32°C maximum temperature for Hong Kong on August 29, 2026, reflecting real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and the influence of unsettled weather patterns.** A broad low-pressure trough over the Guangdong coast and northern South China Sea has driven scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover, preventing strong solar heating despite a Very Hot Weather Warning remaining in effect. Official HKO forecasts anticipated a peak near 33°C with brief sunny intervals, yet afternoon readings at the HKO headquarters reached only 32°C around 1 p.m. before declining to 31°C by 4 p.m. and 30°C by evening, with regional stations showing limited excursions above this level amid high humidity (70–95%) and light west-to-southwest winds. This outcome aligns with the market-implied odds because the day’s trajectory is largely complete, and official maximum temperature criteria prioritize verified HKO station data over isolated higher readings elsewhere. The near-100% consensus on 32°C incorporates the “wisdom of crowds” from traders monitoring live HKO bulletins and regional networks. Realistic challenges remain narrow: an unexpected late-day clearing that pushes the official reading to 33°C, or a post-event data revision confirming a higher peak. However, ongoing showers and the evening cooldown make these scenarios improbable given current conditions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Hong Kong le 29 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Hong Kong le 29 août ?
32°C 99.8%
35°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$131,586 Vol.
$131,586 Vol.
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 99.8%
35°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$131,586 Vol.
$131,586 Vol.
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment heavily favors a 32°C maximum temperature for Hong Kong on August 29, 2026, reflecting real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and the influence of unsettled weather patterns.** A broad low-pressure trough over the Guangdong coast and northern South China Sea has driven scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover, preventing strong solar heating despite a Very Hot Weather Warning remaining in effect. Official HKO forecasts anticipated a peak near 33°C with brief sunny intervals, yet afternoon readings at the HKO headquarters reached only 32°C around 1 p.m. before declining to 31°C by 4 p.m. and 30°C by evening, with regional stations showing limited excursions above this level amid high humidity (70–95%) and light west-to-southwest winds. This outcome aligns with the market-implied odds because the day’s trajectory is largely complete, and official maximum temperature criteria prioritize verified HKO station data over isolated higher readings elsewhere. The near-100% consensus on 32°C incorporates the “wisdom of crowds” from traders monitoring live HKO bulletins and regional networks. Realistic challenges remain narrow: an unexpected late-day clearing that pushes the official reading to 33°C, or a post-event data revision confirming a higher peak. However, ongoing showers and the evening cooldown make these scenarios improbable given current conditions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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