Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable high-pressure system over central Spain, supporting afternoon highs near 31–32°C in Madrid on September 21. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 32°C (64%) over 33°C (35.5%), as recent model runs show limited potential for further warming beyond historical September maxima around 32.6°C. Above-normal September temperatures this month, driven by persistent anticyclonic conditions and minimal cloud cover, have reinforced trader consensus around these thresholds, with low probabilities assigned to cooler or much hotter outcomes given the short time to resolution and consistent observational trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 21 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 21 septembre ?
32°C 61%
33°C 40%
34°C 2%
31°C 1.5%
NOUVEAU
$28,516 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$28,516 Vol.
21 sept. 2026
26°C ou moins
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
61%
33°C
40%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C ou plus
<1%
32°C 61%
33°C 40%
34°C 2%
31°C 1.5%
NOUVEAU
$28,516 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$28,516 Vol.
21 sept. 2026
26°C ou moins
$1,225 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,192 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,294 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,257 Vol.
1%
31°C
$3,664 Vol.
2%
32°C
$7,538 Vol.
61%
33°C
$6,905 Vol.
40%
34°C
$3,029 Vol.
2%
35°C
$736 Vol.
1%
36°C ou plus
$165 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable high-pressure system over central Spain, supporting afternoon highs near 31–32°C in Madrid on September 21. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 32°C (64%) over 33°C (35.5%), as recent model runs show limited potential for further warming beyond historical September maxima around 32.6°C. Above-normal September temperatures this month, driven by persistent anticyclonic conditions and minimal cloud cover, have reinforced trader consensus around these thresholds, with low probabilities assigned to cooler or much hotter outcomes given the short time to resolution and consistent observational trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$28,516Date de fin
21 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable high-pressure system over central Spain, supporting afternoon highs near 31–32°C in Madrid on September 21. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 32°C (64%) over 33°C (35.5%), as recent model runs show limited potential for further warming beyond historical September maxima around 32.6°C. Above-normal September temperatures this month, driven by persistent anticyclonic conditions and minimal cloud cover, have reinforced trader consensus around these thresholds, with low probabilities assigned to cooler or much hotter outcomes given the short time to resolution and consistent observational trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,516Date de fin
21 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable high-pressure system over central Spain, supporting afternoon highs near 31–32°C in Madrid on September 21. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 32°C (64%) over 33°C (35.5%), as recent model runs show limited potential for further warming beyond historical September maxima around 32.6°C. Above-normal September temperatures this month, driven by persistent anticyclonic conditions and minimal cloud cover, have reinforced trader consensus around these thresholds, with low probabilities assigned to cooler or much hotter outcomes given the short time to resolution and consistent observational trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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