Elevated inflation risks from sustained high energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for all of 2026, with market-implied odds at 70.9%. The March CPI print at 3.3% and resilient labor market conditions have prompted major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to defer any easing until late 2026 or 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing a roughly 71% chance the FOMC holds the 3.50–3.75% target range steady through year-end. Recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks reinforce this cautious stance, though further cooling in core inflation or labor-market softening could still shift the rate path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
0 (0 bps) 70.3%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 pb) 7%
3 (75 points de base) 2.7%
$26,872,560 Vol.
$26,872,560 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
70%
1 (25 bps)
16%
2 (50 pb)
7%
3 (75 points de base)
3%
4 (100 pb)
2%
5 (125 pb)
1%
6 (150 points de base)
1%
7 (175 points de base)
<1%
8 (200 points de base)
<1%
9 (225 points de base)
<1%
10 (250 pb)
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 70.3%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 pb) 7%
3 (75 points de base) 2.7%
$26,872,560 Vol.
$26,872,560 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,185,676 Vol.
70%
1 (25 bps)
$1,244,470 Vol.
16%
2 (50 pb)
$1,203,687 Vol.
7%
3 (75 points de base)
$1,113,699 Vol.
3%
4 (100 pb)
$1,194,562 Vol.
2%
5 (125 pb)
$1,415,585 Vol.
1%
6 (150 points de base)
$2,484,312 Vol.
1%
7 (175 points de base)
$1,322,083 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 points de base)
$1,726,868 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 points de base)
$2,449,424 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 pb)
$3,115,569 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
$3,266,343 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,151,069 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks from sustained high energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for all of 2026, with market-implied odds at 70.9%. The March CPI print at 3.3% and resilient labor market conditions have prompted major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to defer any easing until late 2026 or 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing a roughly 71% chance the FOMC holds the 3.50–3.75% target range steady through year-end. Recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks reinforce this cautious stance, though further cooling in core inflation or labor-market softening could still shift the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Marché ouvert : Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$26,872,560Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks from sustained high energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for all of 2026, with market-implied odds at 70.9%. The March CPI print at 3.3% and resilient labor market conditions have prompted major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to defer any easing until late 2026 or 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing a roughly 71% chance the FOMC holds the 3.50–3.75% target range steady through year-end. Recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks reinforce this cautious stance, though further cooling in core inflation or labor-market softening could still shift the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,872,560Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation risks from sustained high energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for all of 2026, with market-implied odds at 70.9%. The March CPI print at 3.3% and resilient labor market conditions have prompted major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to defer any easing until late 2026 or 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing a roughly 71% chance the FOMC holds the 3.50–3.75% target range steady through year-end. Recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks reinforce this cautious stance, though further cooling in core inflation or labor-market softening could still shift the rate path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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