Recent announcements have already brought the total of Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 to 36 or 37, driven by retirements and bids for other offices amid legislative gridlock and a narrow majority. Traders see the race between the 36–39 and 40–43 ranges as tightly contested because additional departures remain likely before filing deadlines, though the pace of new announcements has slowed since March and April. Factors such as members pursuing governorships or Senate seats, institutional frustration, and midterm dynamics could push the final count higher, while fewer late decisions would keep it near current levels. The market reflects uncertainty over how many more incumbents will exit before the cycle closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ?
Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ?
44+ 37.0%
28–31 12%
32–35 <1%
<24 <1%
$56,541 Vol.
$56,541 Vol.
31 août 2026
<24
<1%
24–27
<1%
28–31
11%
32–35
<1%
36–39
41%
40–43
39%
44+
37%
44+ 37.0%
28–31 12%
32–35 <1%
<24 <1%
$56,541 Vol.
$56,541 Vol.
31 août 2026
<24
$3,907 Vol.
<1%
24–27
$18,964 Vol.
<1%
28–31
$21,831 Vol.
11%
32–35
$4,611 Vol.
<1%
36–39
$2,548 Vol.
41%
40–43
$2,077 Vol.
39%
44+
$2,602 Vol.
37%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have already brought the total of Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 to 36 or 37, driven by retirements and bids for other offices amid legislative gridlock and a narrow majority. Traders see the race between the 36–39 and 40–43 ranges as tightly contested because additional departures remain likely before filing deadlines, though the pace of new announcements has slowed since March and April. Factors such as members pursuing governorships or Senate seats, institutional frustration, and midterm dynamics could push the final count higher, while fewer late decisions would keep it near current levels. The market reflects uncertainty over how many more incumbents will exit before the cycle closes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$56,541Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have already brought the total of Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 to 36 or 37, driven by retirements and bids for other offices amid legislative gridlock and a narrow majority. Traders see the race between the 36–39 and 40–43 ranges as tightly contested because additional departures remain likely before filing deadlines, though the pace of new announcements has slowed since March and April. Factors such as members pursuing governorships or Senate seats, institutional frustration, and midterm dynamics could push the final count higher, while fewer late decisions would keep it near current levels. The market reflects uncertainty over how many more incumbents will exit before the cycle closes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$56,541Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements have already brought the total of Republican House members not seeking re-election in 2026 to 36 or 37, driven by retirements and bids for other offices amid legislative gridlock and a narrow majority. Traders see the race between the 36–39 and 40–43 ranges as tightly contested because additional departures remain likely before filing deadlines, though the pace of new announcements has slowed since March and April. Factors such as members pursuing governorships or Senate seats, institutional frustration, and midterm dynamics could push the final count higher, while fewer late decisions would keep it near current levels. The market reflects uncertainty over how many more incumbents will exit before the cycle closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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