**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking show roughly 23–25 Democratic House members have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bucket at 48%.** This total includes both full retirements from public office (around 15 Democrats) and departures to pursue Senate, gubernatorial, or other races (roughly 8–10 more). High-profile exits by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, Lloyd Doggett, and others—many announced in late 2025 after off-year results—have driven the count, with additional announcements continuing into 2026. Republicans account for a larger share of total departures (37 vs. 23 Democrats), consistent with historical patterns of the minority party seeing elevated attrition before midterms. The 24–27 range sits at 33.5% as traders weigh whether a handful of late announcements or primary challenges could push the final Democratic total higher before filing deadlines close. No major new Democratic departures have been reported in recent weeks, keeping the distribution concentrated in the low-to-mid 20s.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour20–23 48.0%
24–27 33%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$45,075 Vol.
$45,075 Vol.
30 août 2026
<20
1%
20–23
48%
24–27
33%
28–31
10%
32–35
7%
36–39
<1%
40+
7%
20–23 48.0%
24–27 33%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$45,075 Vol.
$45,075 Vol.
30 août 2026
<20
$17,832 Vol.
1%
20–23
$9,852 Vol.
48%
24–27
$7,874 Vol.
33%
28–31
$1,930 Vol.
10%
32–35
$4,533 Vol.
7%
36–39
$1,355 Vol.
<1%
40+
$1,699 Vol.
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking show roughly 23–25 Democratic House members have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bucket at 48%.** This total includes both full retirements from public office (around 15 Democrats) and departures to pursue Senate, gubernatorial, or other races (roughly 8–10 more). High-profile exits by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, Lloyd Doggett, and others—many announced in late 2025 after off-year results—have driven the count, with additional announcements continuing into 2026. Republicans account for a larger share of total departures (37 vs. 23 Democrats), consistent with historical patterns of the minority party seeing elevated attrition before midterms. The 24–27 range sits at 33.5% as traders weigh whether a handful of late announcements or primary challenges could push the final Democratic total higher before filing deadlines close. No major new Democratic departures have been reported in recent weeks, keeping the distribution concentrated in the low-to-mid 20s.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$45,075Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking show roughly 23–25 Democratic House members have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bucket at 48%.** This total includes both full retirements from public office (around 15 Democrats) and departures to pursue Senate, gubernatorial, or other races (roughly 8–10 more). High-profile exits by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, Lloyd Doggett, and others—many announced in late 2025 after off-year results—have driven the count, with additional announcements continuing into 2026. Republicans account for a larger share of total departures (37 vs. 23 Democrats), consistent with historical patterns of the minority party seeing elevated attrition before midterms. The 24–27 range sits at 33.5% as traders weigh whether a handful of late announcements or primary challenges could push the final Democratic total higher before filing deadlines close. No major new Democratic departures have been reported in recent weeks, keeping the distribution concentrated in the low-to-mid 20s.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$45,075Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking show roughly 23–25 Democratic House members have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bucket at 48%.** This total includes both full retirements from public office (around 15 Democrats) and departures to pursue Senate, gubernatorial, or other races (roughly 8–10 more). High-profile exits by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, Lloyd Doggett, and others—many announced in late 2025 after off-year results—have driven the count, with additional announcements continuing into 2026. Republicans account for a larger share of total departures (37 vs. 23 Democrats), consistent with historical patterns of the minority party seeing elevated attrition before midterms. The 24–27 range sits at 33.5% as traders weigh whether a handful of late announcements or primary challenges could push the final Democratic total higher before filing deadlines close. No major new Democratic departures have been reported in recent weeks, keeping the distribution concentrated in the low-to-mid 20s.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le nombre de membres républicains de la Chambre qui prendront leur retraite en 2026 sera-t-il compris entre 36 et 39 inclus ?
83%
Oui
Le nombre de membres républicains du Sénat qui prendront leur retraite en 2026 sera-t-il exactement de 7 ?
77%
Oui
Les titulaires démocrates à la Chambre ne gagneront-ils pas entre dix et douze élections de nomination au cours du cycle 2026 ?
58%
Oui
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