Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating and similar assessments from other forecasters, which underpins the 94.5% Republican consensus in this market. Incumbent Mike Kennedy advanced unopposed through the Republican primary after court-ordered redistricting adjusted boundaries that still favor the party by wide margins, including a 32-point Trump margin in the prior presidential vote. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen faces structural challenges in a district with limited recent competitiveness for the party. Traders price in these fundamentals ahead of the November 2026 general election. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, sharp national political shift, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited room for such reversals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUT-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
UT-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$41,070 Vol.
$41,070 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
95%
Parti démocrate
6%
$41,070 Vol.
$41,070 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$15,673 Vol.
95%
Parti démocrate
$25,397 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating and similar assessments from other forecasters, which underpins the 94.5% Republican consensus in this market. Incumbent Mike Kennedy advanced unopposed through the Republican primary after court-ordered redistricting adjusted boundaries that still favor the party by wide margins, including a 32-point Trump margin in the prior presidential vote. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen faces structural challenges in a district with limited recent competitiveness for the party. Traders price in these fundamentals ahead of the November 2026 general election. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, sharp national political shift, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited room for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$41,070Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating and similar assessments from other forecasters, which underpins the 94.5% Republican consensus in this market. Incumbent Mike Kennedy advanced unopposed through the Republican primary after court-ordered redistricting adjusted boundaries that still favor the party by wide margins, including a 32-point Trump margin in the prior presidential vote. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen faces structural challenges in a district with limited recent competitiveness for the party. Traders price in these fundamentals ahead of the November 2026 general election. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, sharp national political shift, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited room for such reversals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,070Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating and similar assessments from other forecasters, which underpins the 94.5% Republican consensus in this market. Incumbent Mike Kennedy advanced unopposed through the Republican primary after court-ordered redistricting adjusted boundaries that still favor the party by wide margins, including a 32-point Trump margin in the prior presidential vote. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen faces structural challenges in a district with limited recent competitiveness for the party. Traders price in these fundamentals ahead of the November 2026 general election. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, sharp national political shift, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited room for such reversals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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