Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, backed by polling averages showing him ahead by double digits over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. Key drivers include the March 2026 withdrawal and endorsement from retiring Republican incumbent Steve Daines, Alme's strong June primary performance, and Montana's consistent Republican tilt in recent federal contests. Traders price in high certainty for a Republican outcome given the state's electoral history, limited Democratic infrastructure, and the independent candidate's inability to consolidate enough support to overcome the gap. Late-cycle developments that could narrow the margin include shifts in turnout among rural or Native American voters, unexpected national political events, or a surge in Bodnar's independent bid, though current evidence shows limited movement toward those scenarios.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 93%
Indépendant 3.5%
Démocrate <1%
$111,340 Vol.
$111,340 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
93%
Indépendant
4%
Démocrate
1%
Républicain 93%
Indépendant 3.5%
Démocrate <1%
$111,340 Vol.
$111,340 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
$55,889 Vol.
93%
Indépendant
$15,289 Vol.
4%
Démocrate
$40,162 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, backed by polling averages showing him ahead by double digits over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. Key drivers include the March 2026 withdrawal and endorsement from retiring Republican incumbent Steve Daines, Alme's strong June primary performance, and Montana's consistent Republican tilt in recent federal contests. Traders price in high certainty for a Republican outcome given the state's electoral history, limited Democratic infrastructure, and the independent candidate's inability to consolidate enough support to overcome the gap. Late-cycle developments that could narrow the margin include shifts in turnout among rural or Native American voters, unexpected national political events, or a surge in Bodnar's independent bid, though current evidence shows limited movement toward those scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$111,340Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, backed by polling averages showing him ahead by double digits over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. Key drivers include the March 2026 withdrawal and endorsement from retiring Republican incumbent Steve Daines, Alme's strong June primary performance, and Montana's consistent Republican tilt in recent federal contests. Traders price in high certainty for a Republican outcome given the state's electoral history, limited Democratic infrastructure, and the independent candidate's inability to consolidate enough support to overcome the gap. Late-cycle developments that could narrow the margin include shifts in turnout among rural or Native American voters, unexpected national political events, or a surge in Bodnar's independent bid, though current evidence shows limited movement toward those scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$111,340Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, backed by polling averages showing him ahead by double digits over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. Key drivers include the March 2026 withdrawal and endorsement from retiring Republican incumbent Steve Daines, Alme's strong June primary performance, and Montana's consistent Republican tilt in recent federal contests. Traders price in high certainty for a Republican outcome given the state's electoral history, limited Democratic infrastructure, and the independent candidate's inability to consolidate enough support to overcome the gap. Late-cycle developments that could narrow the margin include shifts in turnout among rural or Native American voters, unexpected national political events, or a surge in Bodnar's independent bid, though current evidence shows limited movement toward those scenarios.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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