Montana's conservative electorate and Republican structural advantages position the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in this open-seat contest, with traders assigning roughly three-quarters probability to a Republican victory. Incumbent Steve Daines's abrupt March withdrawal and endorsement of former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, backed by President Trump, allowed Alme to consolidate the primary field and win nomination by a wide margin on June 2. The presence of both Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar—endorsed by former Senator Jon Tester—on the November ballot fragments opposition support in a state where analysts rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. Limited candidate name recognition and early polling further reinforce the current market consensus ahead of the general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRepublican 85%
Independent 8.8%
Democrat 1.4%
$82,256 Vol.
$82,256 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Republican
85%
Independent
9%
Democrat
1%
Republican 85%
Independent 8.8%
Democrat 1.4%
$82,256 Vol.
$82,256 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Republican
$41,707 Vol.
85%
Independent
$3,311 Vol.
9%
Democrat
$37,238 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's conservative electorate and Republican structural advantages position the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in this open-seat contest, with traders assigning roughly three-quarters probability to a Republican victory. Incumbent Steve Daines's abrupt March withdrawal and endorsement of former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, backed by President Trump, allowed Alme to consolidate the primary field and win nomination by a wide margin on June 2. The presence of both Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar—endorsed by former Senator Jon Tester—on the November ballot fragments opposition support in a state where analysts rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. Limited candidate name recognition and early polling further reinforce the current market consensus ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$82,256Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's conservative electorate and Republican structural advantages position the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in this open-seat contest, with traders assigning roughly three-quarters probability to a Republican victory. Incumbent Steve Daines's abrupt March withdrawal and endorsement of former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, backed by President Trump, allowed Alme to consolidate the primary field and win nomination by a wide margin on June 2. The presence of both Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar—endorsed by former Senator Jon Tester—on the November ballot fragments opposition support in a state where analysts rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. Limited candidate name recognition and early polling further reinforce the current market consensus ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$82,256Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's conservative electorate and Republican structural advantages position the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in this open-seat contest, with traders assigning roughly three-quarters probability to a Republican victory. Incumbent Steve Daines's abrupt March withdrawal and endorsement of former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, backed by President Trump, allowed Alme to consolidate the primary field and win nomination by a wide margin on June 2. The presence of both Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar—endorsed by former Senator Jon Tester—on the November ballot fragments opposition support in a state where analysts rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. Limited candidate name recognition and early polling further reinforce the current market consensus ahead of the general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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