Montana's Republican tilt in federal elections, reinforced by the state's voting patterns since 2014, positions the GOP nominee as the frontrunner for the open Senate seat. The recent retirement of incumbent Steve Daines cleared the primary field for Kurt Alme, the U.S. attorney endorsed by President Trump and Daines, who faces limited intra-party opposition ahead of the June primary. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president backed by ex-Senator Jon Tester, draws notable support in head-to-head polling yet trails significantly in multi-candidate scenarios. Democrat Reilly Neill leads her party's primary but confronts structural headwinds in a state where the last Democratic statewide victory occurred in 2018. Trader pricing reflects these dynamics, with upcoming general-election polling and primary results likely to shape further shifts through November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 79%
Indépendant 19.9%
Démocrate 2.8%
$72,624 Vol.
$72,624 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
79%
Indépendant
26%
Démocrate
3%
Républicain 79%
Indépendant 19.9%
Démocrate 2.8%
$72,624 Vol.
$72,624 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
$37,470 Vol.
79%
Indépendant
$1,510 Vol.
26%
Démocrate
$33,644 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's Republican tilt in federal elections, reinforced by the state's voting patterns since 2014, positions the GOP nominee as the frontrunner for the open Senate seat. The recent retirement of incumbent Steve Daines cleared the primary field for Kurt Alme, the U.S. attorney endorsed by President Trump and Daines, who faces limited intra-party opposition ahead of the June primary. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president backed by ex-Senator Jon Tester, draws notable support in head-to-head polling yet trails significantly in multi-candidate scenarios. Democrat Reilly Neill leads her party's primary but confronts structural headwinds in a state where the last Democratic statewide victory occurred in 2018. Trader pricing reflects these dynamics, with upcoming general-election polling and primary results likely to shape further shifts through November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$72,624Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's Republican tilt in federal elections, reinforced by the state's voting patterns since 2014, positions the GOP nominee as the frontrunner for the open Senate seat. The recent retirement of incumbent Steve Daines cleared the primary field for Kurt Alme, the U.S. attorney endorsed by President Trump and Daines, who faces limited intra-party opposition ahead of the June primary. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president backed by ex-Senator Jon Tester, draws notable support in head-to-head polling yet trails significantly in multi-candidate scenarios. Democrat Reilly Neill leads her party's primary but confronts structural headwinds in a state where the last Democratic statewide victory occurred in 2018. Trader pricing reflects these dynamics, with upcoming general-election polling and primary results likely to shape further shifts through November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$72,624Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's Republican tilt in federal elections, reinforced by the state's voting patterns since 2014, positions the GOP nominee as the frontrunner for the open Senate seat. The recent retirement of incumbent Steve Daines cleared the primary field for Kurt Alme, the U.S. attorney endorsed by President Trump and Daines, who faces limited intra-party opposition ahead of the June primary. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president backed by ex-Senator Jon Tester, draws notable support in head-to-head polling yet trails significantly in multi-candidate scenarios. Democrat Reilly Neill leads her party's primary but confronts structural headwinds in a state where the last Democratic statewide victory occurred in 2018. Trader pricing reflects these dynamics, with upcoming general-election polling and primary results likely to shape further shifts through November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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