As of mid-2026, seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the upcoming cycle, establishing the clear market leader at 77 percent. Key retirements include Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Steve Daines of Montana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and others confirmed through mid-year, aligning precisely with the current tally of Republican-held Class II seats. This total reflects standard patterns of voluntary departures driven by age, personal considerations, or shifts to other roles, without additional late announcements or primary challenges altering the count. Traders assign modest probability to scenarios with five, six, eight, or nine departures, which would require unexpected reversals or new exits before filing deadlines. The distribution underscores the stable pace of Senate retirements observed in recent cycles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour7 77%
11 6.1%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,019 Vol.
$101,019 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
6%
12 ou plus
<1%
7 77%
11 6.1%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,019 Vol.
$101,019 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,485 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,977 Vol.
77%
8
$4,602 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,839 Vol.
2%
11
$2,845 Vol.
6%
12 ou plus
$5,082 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-2026, seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the upcoming cycle, establishing the clear market leader at 77 percent. Key retirements include Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Steve Daines of Montana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and others confirmed through mid-year, aligning precisely with the current tally of Republican-held Class II seats. This total reflects standard patterns of voluntary departures driven by age, personal considerations, or shifts to other roles, without additional late announcements or primary challenges altering the count. Traders assign modest probability to scenarios with five, six, eight, or nine departures, which would require unexpected reversals or new exits before filing deadlines. The distribution underscores the stable pace of Senate retirements observed in recent cycles.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,019Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-2026, seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the upcoming cycle, establishing the clear market leader at 77 percent. Key retirements include Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Steve Daines of Montana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and others confirmed through mid-year, aligning precisely with the current tally of Republican-held Class II seats. This total reflects standard patterns of voluntary departures driven by age, personal considerations, or shifts to other roles, without additional late announcements or primary challenges altering the count. Traders assign modest probability to scenarios with five, six, eight, or nine departures, which would require unexpected reversals or new exits before filing deadlines. The distribution underscores the stable pace of Senate retirements observed in recent cycles.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,019Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-2026, seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the upcoming cycle, establishing the clear market leader at 77 percent. Key retirements include Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Steve Daines of Montana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and others confirmed through mid-year, aligning precisely with the current tally of Republican-held Class II seats. This total reflects standard patterns of voluntary departures driven by age, personal considerations, or shifts to other roles, without additional late announcements or primary challenges altering the count. Traders assign modest probability to scenarios with five, six, eight, or nine departures, which would require unexpected reversals or new exits before filing deadlines. The distribution underscores the stable pace of Senate retirements observed in recent cycles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le nombre de membres républicains de la Chambre qui prendront leur retraite en 2026 sera-t-il compris entre 36 et 39 inclus ?
79%
Oui
Le nombre de membres démocrates de la Chambre qui prendront leur retraite en 2026 sera-t-il compris entre 20 et 23 inclus ?
44%
Oui
Les titulaires républicains au Sénat ne remporteront-ils pas exactement trois élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
81%
Oui
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