Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour7 63%
11 18.3%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,731 Vol.
$73,731 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
1%
5
6%
6
10%
7
63%
8
14%
9
3%
10
7%
11
18%
12 ou plus
1%
7 63%
11 18.3%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,731 Vol.
$73,731 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
$20,070 Vol.
1%
5
$15,535 Vol.
6%
6
$26,450 Vol.
10%
7
$2,145 Vol.
63%
8
$1,599 Vol.
14%
9
$1,328 Vol.
3%
10
$1,265 Vol.
7%
11
$923 Vol.
18%
12 ou plus
$4,416 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$73,731Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,731Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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