Recent attacks on commercial vessels, including two ADNOC tankers struck on August 13 amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, combined with the active U.S. naval blockade, have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels—far below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 ships per day. These security risks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Iranian restrictions on routing have kept most tankers and bulk carriers sidelined, with Kpler-tracked volumes showing five-day averages near 13 as of mid-August. The resulting weekly totals align with market-implied odds heavily favoring the 25-49 range (78%), as traders price in persistent disruption without near-term de-escalation. Upcoming Iran-Oman talks and any shift in blockade enforcement represent the key swing factors that could alter these probabilities before week-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent la semaine du 10 août dans le détroit d'Ormuz ?
Combien de navires transitent la semaine du 10 août dans le détroit d'Ormuz ?
25-49 78%
<25 21%
50-74 2.5%
75-99 <1%
$30,123 Vol.
$30,123 Vol.
16 août 2026
<25
21%
25-49
78%
50-74
2%
75-99
<1%
100+
<1%
25-49 78%
<25 21%
50-74 2.5%
75-99 <1%
$30,123 Vol.
$30,123 Vol.
16 août 2026
<25
$11,403 Vol.
21%
25-49
$11,670 Vol.
78%
50-74
$4,190 Vol.
2%
75-99
$1,663 Vol.
<1%
100+
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on commercial vessels, including two ADNOC tankers struck on August 13 amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, combined with the active U.S. naval blockade, have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels—far below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 ships per day. These security risks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Iranian restrictions on routing have kept most tankers and bulk carriers sidelined, with Kpler-tracked volumes showing five-day averages near 13 as of mid-August. The resulting weekly totals align with market-implied odds heavily favoring the 25-49 range (78%), as traders price in persistent disruption without near-term de-escalation. Upcoming Iran-Oman talks and any shift in blockade enforcement represent the key swing factors that could alter these probabilities before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$30,123Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on commercial vessels, including two ADNOC tankers struck on August 13 amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, combined with the active U.S. naval blockade, have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels—far below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 ships per day. These security risks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Iranian restrictions on routing have kept most tankers and bulk carriers sidelined, with Kpler-tracked volumes showing five-day averages near 13 as of mid-August. The resulting weekly totals align with market-implied odds heavily favoring the 25-49 range (78%), as traders price in persistent disruption without near-term de-escalation. Upcoming Iran-Oman talks and any shift in blockade enforcement represent the key swing factors that could alter these probabilities before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$30,123Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent attacks on commercial vessels, including two ADNOC tankers struck on August 13 amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, combined with the active U.S. naval blockade, have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels—far below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 ships per day. These security risks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Iranian restrictions on routing have kept most tankers and bulk carriers sidelined, with Kpler-tracked volumes showing five-day averages near 13 as of mid-August. The resulting weekly totals align with market-implied odds heavily favoring the 25-49 range (78%), as traders price in persistent disruption without near-term de-escalation. Upcoming Iran-Oman talks and any shift in blockade enforcement represent the key swing factors that could alter these probabilities before week-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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