Above-average 2026 U.S. tornado activity overall, combined with confirmed early-August events including an August 1 Ohio Valley outbreak and an August 11 derecho spawning multiple tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana, anchors trader consensus near the 81-tornado historical August mean. Northern states remain favored due to the summertime jet stream position enhancing wind shear and instability amid high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and moisture. Closely matched probabilities across the 60–119 range reflect uncertainty in late-month steering patterns and any tropical moisture contributions, with Storm Prediction Center outlooks and National Weather Service confirmations providing the key near-term signals that could shift counts before month-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en août 2026 ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en août 2026 ?
60-79 32%
80-99 29%
100–119 23%
40–59 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
<40
3%
40–59
9%
60-79
32%
80-99
29%
100–119
23%
120–139
2%
140-169
8%
170–199
3%
200+
9%
60-79 32%
80-99 29%
100–119 23%
40–59 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
<40
$258 Vol.
3%
40–59
$152 Vol.
9%
60-79
$85 Vol.
32%
80-99
$83 Vol.
29%
100–119
$167 Vol.
23%
120–139
$52 Vol.
2%
140-169
$209 Vol.
8%
170–199
$157 Vol.
3%
200+
$245 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Above-average 2026 U.S. tornado activity overall, combined with confirmed early-August events including an August 1 Ohio Valley outbreak and an August 11 derecho spawning multiple tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana, anchors trader consensus near the 81-tornado historical August mean. Northern states remain favored due to the summertime jet stream position enhancing wind shear and instability amid high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and moisture. Closely matched probabilities across the 60–119 range reflect uncertainty in late-month steering patterns and any tropical moisture contributions, with Storm Prediction Center outlooks and National Weather Service confirmations providing the key near-term signals that could shift counts before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,409Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Above-average 2026 U.S. tornado activity overall, combined with confirmed early-August events including an August 1 Ohio Valley outbreak and an August 11 derecho spawning multiple tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana, anchors trader consensus near the 81-tornado historical August mean. Northern states remain favored due to the summertime jet stream position enhancing wind shear and instability amid high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and moisture. Closely matched probabilities across the 60–119 range reflect uncertainty in late-month steering patterns and any tropical moisture contributions, with Storm Prediction Center outlooks and National Weather Service confirmations providing the key near-term signals that could shift counts before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$1,409Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average 2026 U.S. tornado activity overall, combined with confirmed early-August events including an August 1 Ohio Valley outbreak and an August 11 derecho spawning multiple tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana, anchors trader consensus near the 81-tornado historical August mean. Northern states remain favored due to the summertime jet stream position enhancing wind shear and instability amid high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and moisture. Closely matched probabilities across the 60–119 range reflect uncertainty in late-month steering patterns and any tropical moisture contributions, with Storm Prediction Center outlooks and National Weather Service confirmations providing the key near-term signals that could shift counts before month-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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